Precipitation Probability and Its Future Changes From a Global Cloud-Resolving Model and CMIP6 Simulations

Na, Ying; Fu, Qiang; Kodama, Chihiro

doi:10.1029/2019jd031926

Precipitation Probability and Its Future Changes From a Global Cloud-Resolving Model and CMIP6 Simulations

Journal Article · Thu Feb 27 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd031926· OSTI ID:1803281

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Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); University of Washington
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan)

This study investigates precipitation probability and its future changes using simulations from the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global cloud-resolving model, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. For the precipitation probability comparison between models and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) during 1998–2008, the difference is greatly reduced by regridding to a common coarser resolution, but the difference signs largely remain. Both NICAM and CMIP6 model ensemble mean show less global-mean nonprecipitation fractions than observations, but NICAM agrees better with observations. For global-mean light precipitation probability, NICAM (CMIP6 model ensemble mean) is smaller (larger) than TRMM. NICAM shows higher heavy precipitation probability than TRMM in native resolutions, but it is close to TRMM and falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding. For the precipitation probability changes from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts an increase in nonprecipitation and extreme heavy (>100 mm/day) precipitation probability but a slight decrease in the probability for precipitation <100 mm/day. After regridding to 2.5°, the precipitation intensity where the probability starts to increase becomes ~20 mm/day and the relative increases in nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability become much larger. Future heavy precipitation probability relative increases from CMIP6 models are much larger than NICAM at their native resolutions, but NICAM falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding, indicating robust future increase (decrease) in heavy (light) precipitation probability regardless of underlying convection treatments. Discrepancy, however, exists in the projected nonprecipitation fraction changes: NICAM shows that nonprecipitation probability will increase over most of low and middle latitudes where CMIP6 models show less increases and even decreases.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0018190

OSTI ID:: 1803281

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 125; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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