Precipitation Characteristics and Future Changes Over the Southern Slope of Tibetan Plateau Simulated by a High-Resolution Global Nonhydrostatic Model

Na, Ying; Lu, Riyu; Fu, Qiang; Kodama, Chihiro

doi:10.1029/2020jd033630

Precipitation Characteristics and Future Changes Over the Southern Slope of Tibetan Plateau Simulated by a High-Resolution Global Nonhydrostatic Model

Journal Article · Sat Jan 09 23:00:00 EST 2021 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033630· OSTI ID:1852534

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Beijing Regional Climate Center (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan)

Current climate model resolution cannot accurately describe the complex topography over the Tibetan Plateau, which limits our understanding of past and future precipitation over this region. This study investigates the daily precipitation characteristics and its future changes over the Tibetan Plateau, especially for the southern slope of Tibetan Plateau (SSTP), by 14-km Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) with explicitly calculated convection for historical and future 30-years period. By comparing with the satellite Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), NICAM well reproduces the historical precipitation spatial pattern, seasonal cycle, and the extreme precipitation belt over SSTP, but overestimates precipitation amount by~35%. It is found that heavy precipitation probability decreases as elevation becomes higher while the light precipitation generally shows the opposite. For the precipitation changes during June to September from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts that mean precipitation will decrease over low-level SSTP but increase over high-level SSTP. Nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability will increase while light precipitation probability will decrease in the future over SSTP. The extreme precipitation probability and intensity will increase ~50%/°C and ~8%/°C over SSTP, and this increase is more obvious as elevation becomes higher. The robust increase of extreme precipitation along the SSTP topography is unique and has not been identified by the climate model simulations before. The strong meridional gradient of specific humidity over SSTP is found to be further enhanced under global warming, and this gradient enhancement is suggested to be responsible for the increase in the extreme precipitation over SSTP.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: University of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0018190

OSTI ID:: 1852534

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 126; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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