Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.

Ralston Fonseca, Francisco; Craig, Michael; Jaramillo, Paulina; Bergés, Mario; Severnini, Edson; Loew, Aviva; Zhai, Haibo; Cheng, Yifan; Nijssen, Bart; Voisin, Nathalie; Yearsley, John

doi:10.1021/acs.est.0c06547

Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.

Journal Article · Mon Jan 25 23:00:00 EST 2021 · Environmental Science and Technology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c06547· OSTI ID:1768871

^[1]; ^[2]; Jaramillo, Paulina ^[1]; Bergés, Mario ^[1]; Severnini, Edson ^[1]; Loew, Aviva ^[1]; ^[3]; Cheng, Yifan ^[4]; Nijssen, Bart ^[4]; Voisin, Nathalie ^[5]; ^[4]

Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States) ; Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1768871

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--159369

Journal Information:: Environmental Science and Technology, Journal Name: Environmental Science and Technology Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 55; ISSN 0013-936X

Publisher:: American Chemical Society (ACS)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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