Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas

Craig, Michael; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Brian S; Nijssen, Bart; Brancucci, Carlo

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab6615

Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas

Journal Article · Mon Dec 30 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6615· OSTI ID:1605082

^[1]; Jaramillo, Paulina ^[2]; ^[3]; Nijssen, Bart ^[4]; ^[5]

Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
encoord LLC, Edgewater,CO (United States)

Power system planning aims at ensuring that sufficient supply- and demand-side assets exist to meet electricity demand at all times. For a Texas electric power system with high wind and solar penetrations, we quantify how climate change will affect supply and demand during three types of high stress periods for the power grid: high demand hours, high net demand hours, and high system ramp hours. We specifically quantify effects on demand, reductions in available thermal capacity (i.e. thermal deratings), wind and solar generation, and net demand. We estimate each using meteorological variables from five climate change projections (2041-2050) assuming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and from a reference period (1996-2005). All five projections indicate that climate change will increase demand by up to 2 GWh during high demand hours (4% of demand in the reference period) and increase net demand by up to 3 GWh during high net demand periods (6% of net demand in the reference period). All five projections also indicate thermal deratings will increase during high demand and net demand periods by up to 2 GWh and high net demand ramps will increase by up to 2 GW. Overall, our results indicate compounding effects of climate change in Texas will necessitate greater investment in peak and flexible capacity.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1605082

Report Number(s):: NREL-JA--5D00-72413

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 15; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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