Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Ralston Fonseca, Francisco; Craig, Michael; Jaramillo, Paulina; Bergés, Mario; Severnini, Edson; Loew, Aviva; Zhai, Haibo; Cheng, Yifan; Nijssen, Bart; Voisin, Nathalie; Yearsley, John

doi:10.1021/acs.est.1c01334

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Journal Article · Tue Aug 03 04:00:00 EDT 2021 · Environmental Science and Technology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c01334· OSTI ID:1821890

^[1]; ^[2]; Jaramillo, Paulina ^[1]; Bergés, Mario ^[1]; Severnini, Edson ^[1]; Loew, Aviva ^[1]; ^[3]; Cheng, Yifan ^[4]; Nijssen, Bart ^[4]; ^[5]; ^[4]

Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Electricity grid planners design the system in order to supply electricity to end users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically-based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. Finally, these results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1821890

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--164744

Journal Information:: Environmental Science and Technology, Journal Name: Environmental Science and Technology Journal Issue: 16 Vol. 55; ISSN 0013-936X

Publisher:: American Chemical Society (ACS)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (53)

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model: SECTORAL WATER MANAGEMENT IN IA-ESM Voisin, Nathalie; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Leung, L. Ruby Water Resources Research, Vol. 53, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019767	journal	May 2017
A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications Abatzoglou, John T.; Brown, Timothy J. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 32, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2312	journal	March 2011
Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling Abatzoglou, John T. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 33, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413	journal	December 2011
Climate change and electricity demand in California Franco, Guido; Sanstad, Alan H. Climatic Change, Vol. 87, Issue S1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y	journal	December 2007
Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Mickelson, Kristian E. B. Climatic Change, Vol. 102, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9857-y	journal	May 2010
Trends in water demand and water availability for power plants—scenario analyses for the German capital Berlin Koch, Hagen; Vögele, Stefan; Kaltofen, Michael Climatic Change, Vol. 110, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0110-0	journal	June 2011
Simulation of tropical cyclone impacts to the U.S. power system under climate change scenarios Staid, Andrea; Guikema, Seth D.; Nateghi, Roshanak Climatic Change, Vol. 127, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1272-3	journal	October 2014
Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon Climatic Change, Vol. 131, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8	journal	June 2015
Assessing climate change impacts on California hydropower generation and ancillary services provision Forrest, Kate; Tarroja, Brian; Chiang, Felicia Climatic Change, Vol. 151, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2329-5	journal	November 2018
Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns Ralston Fonseca, Francisco; Jaramillo, Paulina; Bergés, Mario Climatic Change, Vol. 154, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w	journal	March 2019
Real options analysis of climate-change adaptation: investment flexibility and extreme weather events Guthrie, Graeme Climatic Change, Vol. 156, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02529-z	journal	August 2019
Fossil fuel–fired power plant operations under a changing climate Loew, Aviva; Jaramillo, Paulina; Zhai, Haibo Climatic Change, Vol. 163, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02834-y	journal	September 2020
Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas Losada Carreño, Ignacio; Craig, Michael T.; Rossol, Michael Climatic Change, Vol. 163, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02891-3	journal	November 2020
Relating residential and commercial sector electricity loads to climate—evaluating state level sensitivities and vulnerabilities Sailor, David J. Energy, Vol. 26, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(01)00023-8	journal	July 2001
Air conditioning market saturation and long-term response of residential cooling energy demand to climate change Sailor, D. Energy, Vol. 28, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(03)00033-1	journal	July 2003
The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Draxl, Caroline; Clifton, Andrew; Hodge, Bri-Mathias Applied Energy, Vol. 151, p. 355-366 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.03.121	journal	August 2015
The impact of climate change on a cost-optimal highly renewable European electricity network Schlott, Markus; Kies, Alexander; Brown, Tom Applied Energy, Vol. 230 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.084	journal	November 2018
How does climate change affect electricity system planning and optimal allocation of variable renewable energy? Peter, Jakob Applied Energy, Vol. 252 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113397	journal	October 2019
Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change Koch, Hagen; Vögele, Stefan Ecological Economics, Vol. 68, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.02.015	journal	May 2009
Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John H. Energy, Vol. 79 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.081	journal	January 2015
Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants Kao, Shih-Chieh; Sale, Michael J.; Ashfaq, Moetasim Energy, Vol. 80 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.066	journal	February 2015
Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get? Voisin, N.; Kintner-Meyer, M.; Skaggs, R. Energy, Vol. 115 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.059	journal	November 2016
Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H. Energy, Vol. 141 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.11.089	journal	December 2017
Optimization of regional water - power systems under cooling constraints and climate change Payet-Burin, Raphael; Bertoni, Federica; Davidsen, Claus Energy, Vol. 155 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.043	journal	July 2018
Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system Sathaye, Jayant A.; Dale, Larry L.; Larsen, Peter H. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 23, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.005	journal	April 2013
Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Troccoli, A. Renewable Energy, Vol. 164 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.125	journal	February 2021
A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States Craig, Michael T.; Cohen, Stuart; Macknick, Jordan Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 98 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022	journal	December 2018
Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S. Ralston Fonseca, Francisco; Craig, Michael; Jaramillo, Paulina Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 55, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c06547	journal	January 2021
Climate-Water Adaptation for Future US Electricity Infrastructure Miara, Ariel; Cohen, Stuart M.; Macknick, Jordan Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 53, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b03037	journal	November 2019
Water Use at Pulverized Coal Power Plants with Postcombustion Carbon Capture and Storage Zhai, Haibo; Rubin, Edward S.; Versteeg, Peter L. Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 45, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1021/es1034443	journal	March 2011
A semi-Lagrangian water temperature model for advection-dominated river systems: WATER TEMPERATURE MODEL Yearsley, John R. Water Resources Research, Vol. 45, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007629	journal	December 2009
A Thermally Stratified Reservoir Module for Large‐Scale Distributed Stream Temperature Models With Application in the Tennessee River Basin Niemeyer, Ryan J.; Cheng, Yifan; Mao, Yixin Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022615	journal	October 2018
A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models Liang, Xu; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Wood, Eric F. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 99, Issue D7 https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD00483	journal	January 1994
Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Yearsley, John R.; Ludwig, Fulco Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1546	journal	June 2012
Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States Bartos, Matthew D.; Chester, Mikhail V. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2648	journal	May 2015
Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest Turner, S. W. D.; Voisin, N.; Fazio, J. Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4	journal	January 2019
The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States Maia-Silva, Debora; Kumar, Rohini; Nateghi, Roshanak Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8	journal	April 2020
Extending energy system modelling to include extreme weather risks and application to hurricane events in Puerto Rico Bennett, Jeffrey A.; Trevisan, Claire N.; DeCarolis, Joseph F. Nature Energy, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00758-6	journal	January 2021
Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios Yalew, Seleshi G.; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Gernaat, David E. H. J. Nature Energy, Vol. 5, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z	journal	August 2020
Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States Auffhammer, Maximilian; Baylis, Patrick; Hausman, Catherine H. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613193114	journal	February 2017
Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States Bartos, Matthew; Chester, Mikhail; Johnson, Nathan Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114008	journal	November 2016
Carbon dioxide emissions effects of grid-scale electricity storage in a decarbonizing power system Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9a78	journal	December 2017
Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming Tobin, I.; Greuell, W.; Jerez, S. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab211	journal	April 2018
Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change Craig, Michael T.; Losada Carreño, Ignacio; Rossol, Michael Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf93b	journal	March 2019
XSEDE: Accelerating Scientific Discovery Towns, John; Cockerill, Timothy; Dahan, Maytal Computing in Science & Engineering, Vol. 16, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2014.80	journal	September 2014
Power System Resilience to Extreme Weather: Fragility Modeling, Probabilistic Impact Assessment, and Adaptation Measures Panteli, Mathaios; Pickering, Cassandra; Wilkinson, Sean IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 32, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2641463	journal	September 2017
Bridges: a uniquely flexible HPC resource for new communities and data analytics Nystrom, Nicholas A.; Levine, Michael J.; Roskies, Ralph Z. Proceedings of the 2015 XSEDE Conference on Scientific Advancements Enabled by Enhanced Cyberinfrastructure - XSEDE '15 https://doi.org/10.1145/2792745.2792775	conference	January 2015
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
A Physically Based Runoff Routing Model for Land Surface and Earth System Models Li, Hongyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Wu, Huan Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-015.1	journal	June 2013
MetSim: A Python package for estimation and disaggregation of meteorological data Bennett, Andrew; Hamman, Joseph; Nijssen, Bart Journal of Open Source Software, Vol. 5, Issue 47 https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.02042	journal	March 2020
Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States Mai, Trieu T.; Jadun, Paige; Logan, Jeffrey S. https://doi.org/10.2172/1459351	report	June 2018
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016	journal	January 2016
On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models Voisin, N.; Li, H.; Ward, D. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013	journal	January 2013

Similar Records

Potential impacts of climate change on electric utilities: Final report

Technical Report · Sat Dec 31 23:00:00 EST 1988 · OSTI ID:6426285

Climate Influences on Capacity Expansion Planning with Application to the Western U.S

Technical Report · Thu Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · OSTI ID:1670516

Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.

Journal Article · Mon Jan 25 23:00:00 EST 2021 · Environmental Science and Technology · OSTI ID:1768871

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate change
climate impacts
climate mitigation
energy economics
power system modeling

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Citation Formats

References (53)

Similar Records

Related Subjects