Quantifying the reductions in mortality from air-pollution by cancelling new coal power plants

Sampedro, Jon; Cui, Ryna Yiyun; McJeon, Haewon; Smith, Steven J.; Hultman, Nathan; He, Linlang; Sen, Arijit; Van Dingenen, Rita; Cazcarro, Ignacio

doi:10.1016/j.egycc.2020.100023

Quantifying the reductions in mortality from air-pollution by cancelling new coal power plants

Journal Article · Fri Dec 04 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Energy and Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2020.100023· OSTI ID:1760276

Sampedro, Jon ^[1]; Cui, Ryna Yiyun ^[2]; McJeon, Haewon ^[2]; Smith, Steven J. ^[3]; Hultman, Nathan ^[4]; He, Linlang ^[4]; Sen, Arijit ^[4]; ^[5]; Cazcarro, Ignacio ^[6]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Basque Center for Climate Change (BC3), Leioa (Spain)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Center for Global Sustainability
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Center for Global Sustainability
European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC), Ispra (Italy)
Univ. of Zaragoza (Spain). Aragonese Agency for Research and Development (ARAID), Agrifood Inst. of Aragon (IA2)

Deep decarbonization paths to the 1.5°C or 2°C temperature stabilization futures require a rapid reduction in conventional coal-fired power plants, but countries are currently building 223 GW of new coal power capacity and plan to build 377 GW more in the next decade. Coal-fired plants are also a major contributor to air pollution related health impacts. Here, we couple an integrated human-earth system model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to examine regional health co-benefits from cancelling new coal-fired plants worldwide. Additionally, we find that cancelling all new proposed projects would decrease air pollution related premature mortality between 101,388 - 213,205 deaths (2-5%) in 2030, and 213,414 - 373,054 (5-8%) in 2050, globally, but heavily concentrated in developing Asia. Furthermore, we estimate that strengthening the climate target from 2°C to 1.5°C would avoid 326,351 additional mortalities in 2030, of which 251,011 (75%) are attributable to the incremental coal plant shutdown.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Basque Government; Spanish State Research Agency; USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1760276

Report Number(s):: PNNL-ACT-SA--10477

Journal Information:: Energy and Climate Change, Journal Name: Energy and Climate Change Vol. 2; ISSN 2666-2787

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Quantifying the reductions in mortality from air-pollution by cancelling new coal power plants

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