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Title: Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

Journal Article · · Nature Climate Change
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3354· OSTI ID:1395528
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5];  [6]; ORCiD logo [7];  [8];  [7];  [9];  [10]; ORCiD logo [11];  [12];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [13];  [13];  [15]
  1. Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States). Environmental Sciences and Engineering
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). NCAR Earth System Lab.
  3. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Nicholas School of the Environment
  4. Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology
  5. NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
  6. Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  7. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States)
  8. National Inst. for Environmetnal Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
  9. Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). National Centre for Atmospheric Science
  10. Nagoya Univ. (Japan). Earth and Environmental Science
  11. Kyushu Univ. (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics
  12. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
  13. Univ. of Edinburgh, Scotland (United Kingdom). School of GeoSciences
  14. National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Toulouse (France). National Meteorological Research Center
  15. National Inst. of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington (New Zealand)

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-07NA27344; AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1395528
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-735844; nclimate3354
Journal Information:
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 9; ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 119 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (28)

Pollutant gas and particulate material emissions in ethanol production in Brazil: social and environmental impacts journal November 2019
An urban air quality modeling system to support decision-making: design and implementation journal June 2018
A likely increase in fine particulate matter and premature mortality under future climate change journal January 2020
Health Effects of Climate Change Through Temperature and Air Pollution journal June 2019
A Spatial Survey of Environmental Indicators for Kazakhstan: An Examination of Current Conditions and Future Needs journal August 2018
Current and Future Disease Burden From Ambient Ozone Exposure in India journal November 2018
Desert Dust, Industrialization, and Agricultural Fires: Health Impacts of Outdoor Air Pollution in Africa journal April 2019
Natural Variability in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Fine Particulate Matter Pollution journal July 2019
Enhanced land–sea warming contrast elevates aerosol pollution in a warmer world journal February 2019
Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China journal August 2019
Adapting air quality management for a changing climate: Survey of local districts in California journal May 2018
Estimating ground-level particulate matter concentrations using satellite-based data: a review journal December 2019
Drought-sensitivity of fine dust in the US Southwest: Implications for air quality and public health under future climate change journal May 2018
Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission journal July 2019
The impact of climate mitigation measures on near term climate forcers journal October 2019
17β-Estradiol affects lung function and inflammation following ozone exposure in a sex-specific manner journal November 2019
Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality journal November 2017
Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study journal July 2018
Modulation of the lung inflammatory response to ozone by the estrous cycle journal March 2019
A New Modeling Approach for Estimating Abiotic and Biotic Stress-Induced de novo Emissions of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds From Plants journal June 2019
Machine Learning Approaches for Outdoor Air Quality Modelling: A Systematic Review journal December 2018
Hot Summers: Effect of Extreme Temperatures on Ozone in Sydney, Australia journal November 2018
The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda journal April 2018
Response of Global Air Pollutant Emissions to Climate Change and Its Potential Effects on Human Life Expectancy Loss journal July 2019
Evaluating simplified chemical mechanisms within present-day simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 with CAM4 (CESM1.2 CAM-chem): MOZART-4 vs. Reduced Hydrocarbon vs. Super-Fast chemistry journal January 2018
A new modelling approach for estimating abiotic and biotic stress-induced de novo emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds from plants text January 2019
Estimating ground-level particulate matter concentrations using satellite-based data: a review text January 2019
Estimating ground-level particulate matter concentrations using satellite-based data: a review text January 2019