Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change
- Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States). Environmental Sciences and Engineering
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). NCAR Earth System Lab.
- Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Nicholas School of the Environment
- Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology
- NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
- Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States)
- National Inst. for Environmetnal Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
- Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). National Centre for Atmospheric Science
- Nagoya Univ. (Japan). Earth and Environmental Science
- Kyushu Univ. (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Univ. of Edinburgh, Scotland (United Kingdom). School of GeoSciences
- National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Toulouse (France). National Meteorological Research Center
- National Inst. of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington (New Zealand)
Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344; AC02-05CH11231
- OSTI ID:
- 1395528
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-735844; nclimate3354
- Journal Information:
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 9; ISSN 1758-678X
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Web of Science
Similar Records
A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality
Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050
Related Subjects
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
atmospheric chemistry
environmental health
environmental impact
INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ACCMIP
GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS
OZONE-RELATED MORTALITY
TROPOSPHERIC OZONE
PREMATURE MORTALITY
HEALTH IMPACTS
AMBIENT OZONE
UNITED-STATES
MODEL