Simulation analysis for integrated evaluation of technical and commercial risk

Journal Article · Fri Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1995 · JPT, Journal of Petroleum Technology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2118/30670-PA· OSTI ID:170103

Gutleber, D S; Heiberger, E M; Morris, T D ^[1]

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1. Amoco E and P, Houston, TX (United States)

Decisions to invest in oil- and gasfield acquisitions or participating interests often are based on the perceived ability to enhance the economic value of the underlying asset. A multidisciplinary approach integrating reservoir engineering, operations and drilling, and deal structuring with Monte Carlo simulation modeling can overcome weaknesses of deterministic analysis and significantly enhance investment decisions. This paper discusses the use of spreadsheets and Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilistic outcomes for key technical and economic parameters for ultimate identification of the economic volatility and value of potential deal concepts for a significant opportunity. The approach differs from a simple risk analysis for an individual well by incorporating detailed, full-field simulations that vary the reservoir parameters, capital and operating cost assumptions, and schedules on timing in the framework of various deal structures.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 170103
• Journal Information: JPT, Journal of Petroleum Technology, Journal Name: JPT, Journal of Petroleum Technology Journal Issue: 12 Vol. 47; ISSN 0149-2136; ISSN JPTJAM
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
03 NATURAL GAS
COMPUTER CALCULATIONS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS
PETROLEUM DEPOSITS
RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
STATISTICAL MODELS