Probabilistic model better defines development well risks
Journal Article
·
· Oil and Gas Journal
OSTI ID:382938
- Conoco Inc., Houston, TX (United States)
Probabilistic techniques to compare and rank projects, such as the drilling of development wells, often are more representative than decision tree or deterministic approaches. As opposed to traditional deterministic methods, probabilistic analysis gives decision-makers ranges of outcomes with associated probabilities of occurrence. This article analyzes the drilling of a hypothetical development well with actual field data (such as stabilized initial rates, production declines, and gas/oil ratios) to calculate probabilistic reserves, and production flow streams. Analog operating data were included to build distributions for capital and operating costs. Economics from the Monte Carlo simulation include probabilistic production flow streams and cost distributions. Results include single parameter distributions (reserves, net present value, and profitability index) and time function distributions (annual production and net cash flow).
- OSTI ID:
- 382938
- Journal Information:
- Oil and Gas Journal, Journal Name: Oil and Gas Journal Journal Issue: 42 Vol. 94; ISSN 0030-1388; ISSN OIGJAV
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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