Development of a risk analysis model. Appendix D. Gas-fired heat pump case study, Final report, October 1979

Technical Report · Mon Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1979

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5349131· OSTI ID:5349131

Confronted by major uncertainties in energy supply, demand, and cost, technology suppliers must attempt to make rational manufacturing decisions regarding new energy technologies, technology end-users must attempt to make rational purchasing decisions regarding them, and the DOE Office of Buildings and Community Systems (BCS) must attempt to make rational decisions regarding the type and amount of support it will provide for the development and commercialization of the technologies. One new product development which contains the potential for significant energy savings on a nationwide basis is the gas-fired heat pump. Factors affecting the gas-fired heat pump commercialization decision and the likely results of any action that can be taken to foster that commercialization process are presented. An analysis of the uncertainty associated with basic parameters required for evaluating a venture from the perspective of a manufacturer, such as price, market share, number of units sold, cost of sales, etc. is given. The output from the analysis provides the decision maker with a quantified probabilistic description of the financial outcome (risk vs. return) of the venture in terms of profit, cash flow, net present value, return on investment, etc.

• Research Organization: Dynatrend, Inc., Arlington, VA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5349131
• Report Number(s): SAN-1470-T2(App.D)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320100* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Buildings
COMMERCIALIZATION
DECISION MAKING
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
EVALUATION
FINANCING
FLUIDS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
HEAT PUMPS
MARKETING
MARKETING RESEARCH
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
PROFITS
REGULATIONS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SIMULATION
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
TECHNOLOGY UTILIZATION
US DOE
US ORGANIZATIONS