Risk and decision analysis software

Journal Article · Fri Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1997 · SPE Computer Applications

OSTI ID:536513

Murtha, J

The oil and gas industry engages in risky decision making. They invest money and other resources in projects whose outcomes are highly uncertain. They drill complex wells and build gas plants, refineries, platforms, and pipelines where costly problems could occur and associated revenues might be disappointing. They may lose their investment or they may make a handsome profit. Assessing the outcomes and assigning probabilities of occurrence and associated values are how they analyze and manage risk. A renewed interest in quantifying risk and formalizing complex decisions merits a review of the commercial software available. While this effort is not exhaustive, it serves as a starting point for the engineer or geoscientist whose interests point in this direction. Risk and decision analysis software is as diverse as the analysis methods themselves. Principally, there are programs that perform Monte Carlo simulation and make decision trees. Analytic models that do economics can be linked to both simulation and decision trees; optimization, sensitivity analysis, and influence diagrams are closely related. In addition, one encounters forecasting, expert systems, and fuzzy logic. Within geoscientists` purview are mapping packages and geostatistics software, both of which have the potential to offer strong support to uncertainty analysis. This article concentrates on software for decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, economics, portfolios, and statistical analysis.

• OSTI ID: 536513
• Journal Information: SPE Computer Applications, Journal Name: SPE Computer Applications Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 9; ISSN 1064-9778; ISSN SCAPEP
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
03 NATURAL GAS
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
COMPUTER CODES
DECISION TREE ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
MANUFACTURERS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
RISK ASSESSMENT
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
STATISTICAL MODELS