California's Drought of the Future: A Midcentury Recreation of the Exceptional Conditions of 2012–2017
- Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- U.S. Geological Survey, Carson City, NV (United States)
- Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Public Policy Inst. of California, San Francisco, CA (United States)
The California drought of 2012–2016 was a record-breaking event with extensive social, political, and economic repercussions. The impacts were extensive and exposed the difficulty in preparing for the effects of prolonged dry conditions. Although the lessons from this drought drove important changes to state law and policy, there is little doubt that climate change will only exacerbate future droughts. To discern the character of future drought, this paper examines this recent drought period retrospectively and prospectively, that is, as it occurred historically and if similar dynamical conditions to the historical period were to arise 30 years later (2042–2046) subject to the effects of climate change. Simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model using the pseudo global warming method. The simulated historical and future droughts are contrasted in terms of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and forest health. Overall, the midcentury drought is observed to be significantly worse, with many more extreme heat days, record-low snowpack, increased soil drying, and record-high forest mortality. With these findings in mind, the data sets developed in this study provide a means to structure future drought planning around a drought scenario that is realistic and modeled after a memorable historical analog.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities Division; Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Public Policy Inst.; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. National Inst. of Food and Agriculture
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605; CA‐D‐LAW‐2203‐H; 83586701
- OSTI ID:
- 1515777
- Journal Information:
- Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 11; ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Web of Science
Seasonal Prediction Potential for Springtime Dustiness in the United States
|
journal | August 2019 |
Similar Records
The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM
Projecting 21st century snowpack trends in western USA mountains using variable-resolution CESM