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Title: Projecting 21st century snowpack trends in western USA mountains using variable-resolution CESM

Journal Article · · Climate Dynamics
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
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Climate change will affect western USA water supplies by shifting precipitation from snow to rain and driving snowmelt earlier in the season. Yet, changes at the regional-to-mountain scale is still a major topic of interest. This study addresses the impacts of climate change on mountain snowpack by assessing historical and projected variable-resolution (VR) climate simulations in the community earth system model (VR-CESM) forced by prescribed sea-surface temperatures along with widely used regional downscaling techniques, the coupled model intercomparison projects phase 5 bias corrected and statistically downscaled (CMIP5-BCSD) and the North American regional climate change assessment program (NARCCAP). The multi-model RCP8.5 scenario analysis of winter season SWE for western USA mountains indicates by 2040-2065 mean SWE could decrease ⁻19% (NARCCAP) to ⁻38% (VR-CESM), with an ensemble median change of ⁻27%. Contrary to CMIP5-BCSD and NARCCAP, VR-CESM highlights a more pessimistic outcome for western USA mountain snowpack in latter-parts of the 21st century. This is related to temperature changes altering the snow-albedo feedback, snowpack storage, and precipitation phase, but may indicate that VR-CESM resolves more physically consistent elevational effects lacking in statistically downscaled datasets and teleconnections that are not captured in limited area models. Overall, VR-CESM projects by 2075–2100 that average western USA mountain snowfall decreases by ⁻30%, snow cover by ⁻44%, SWE by ⁻69%, and average surface temperature increase of +5.0 °C. This places pressure on western USA states to preemptively invest in climate adaptation measures such as alternative water storage, water use efficiency, and reassess reservoir storage operations.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Climate and Environmental Sciences Division; National Science Foundation (NSF); California Agricultural Experiment Station
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; 1069333; CA-D-LAW-2203-H
OSTI ID:
1515770
Journal Information:
Climate Dynamics, Vol. 50, Issue 1-2; ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-VerlagCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (6)

Weathering adaptation: Grid infrastructure planning in a changing climate journal January 2020
California's Drought of the Future: A Midcentury Recreation of the Exceptional Conditions of 2012–2017 journal November 2018
Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers journal July 2020
Projected Changes in Water Year Types and Hydrological Drought in California’s Central Valley in the 21st Century journal January 2021
Technical note: Precipitation-phase partitioning at landscape scales to regional scales journal January 2020
Projecting end-of-century climate extremes and their impacts on the hydrology of a representative California watershed journal July 2022

Figures / Tables (18)

Table 1(p. 6)table Table 1
Table 2: Part 1(p. 8)table Table 2: Part 1
Table 2: Part 2(p. 9)table Table 2: Part 2
Table 3(p. 10)table Table 3
Table 4: Part 1(p. 12)table Table 4: Part 1
Table 4: Part 2(p. 13)table Table 4: Part 2
Table 5(p. 15)table Table 5
Fig. 1(p. 16)figure Fig. 1
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Fig. 11(p. 24)figure Fig. 11

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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