The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM

Wang, Meina; Ullrich, Paul; Millstein, Dev

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2018.04.031

The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM

Journal Article · Thu Apr 12 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Renewable Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.04.031· OSTI ID:1477409

Wang, Meina ^[1]; Ullrich, Paul ^[1]; Millstein, Dev ^[2]

Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Shifting wind patterns are an expected consequence of global climate change, with direct implications for wind energy production. However, wind is notoriously difficult to predict, and significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of climate change impacts on existing wind generation capacity. Historical and future wind climatology and associated capacity factors at five wind turbine sites in California are examined. Historical (1980–2000) and mid-century (2030–2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to understand how these wind generation sites are expected to be impacted by climate change. A high-resolution statistically downscaled WRF product provided by DNV GL, reanalysis datasets MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, and observational data were used for model validation and comparison. These projections suggest that wind power generation capacity throughout the state is expected to increase during the summer, and decrease during fall and winter, based on significant changes at several wind farm sites. Finally, this study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances our understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: California Energy Commission (United States); USDA National Inst. of Food and Agriculture (NIFA); USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605

OSTI ID:: 1477409

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1706191

Journal Information:: Renewable Energy, Journal Name: Renewable Energy Vol. 127; ISSN 0960-1481

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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