Prognostic Prediction of Tracer Dispersion for the Diablo Canyon Experiments on August 31, September 2, and September 4, 1986
COAMPS/LODI simulations of the tracer experiments at Diablo Canyon on August 31, September 2, and September 4, 1986 had mixed results. Simulated tracer concentrations on August 31 differed significantly from the measured concentrations. The model transported SF{sub 6} too far south and did not predict transport of SF{sub 6} north along highway 101 or into See Canyon. Early in the day the model rapidly transported SF{sub 6} away from the release point while observations suggested the tracer stayed close to Diablo Canyon for 1-2 hours. For September 2, simulations agreed very well with the measurements. The model accurately predicted the change of wind direction from north northwest to east northeast at the release point. It also predicted the advection of tracer over Mot-r-0 Bay and through the Los Osos Valley toward San Luis Obispo in excellent agreement with the observations. On September 4, the calculated transport of SF{sub 6} from Diablo Canyon had defects similar to those on August 31, a trajectory too far south and limited intrusion of tracer north along highway 101. Conversely, simulations of the Freon release from Los Osos Cemetery on September 4 corresponded well with observations. Since the simulations used only global meteorological data and no local winds for input, even the limited success of COAMPS/LODI is a favorable result. COAMPS's inability to generate southerly winds through the highway 101 corridor on August 31 and September 4 is a symptom of its underestimate of the sea breeze. The weak sea breeze correlates with a small diurnal range of air temperature possibly associated with underestimates of surface solar heating and/or overestimates of surface wetness. Improvement of COAMPS/LODI simulations requires development of new data assimilation techniques to use the local surface and low altitude wind and temperature measurements. Also, quantitative methods are needed to assess the accuracy of the models.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Defense Programs (DP) (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-Eng-48
- OSTI ID:
- 793982
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-ID-136692; TRN: US200302%%696
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 29 Nov 1999
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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