Sliding Window Technique for Calculating System LOLP Contributions of Wind Power Plants
Conventional electric power generation models do not typically recognize the probabilistic nature of the power variations from wind plants. Most models allow for an accurate hourly representation of wind power output, but do not incorporate any probabilistic assessment of whether the given level of wind power will vary from its expected value. The technique presented in this paper uses this variation to calculate an effective forced-outage rate for wind power plants (EFORW). Depending on the type of wind regime undergoing evaluation, the length and diurnal characteristics of a sliding time window can be adjusted so that the EFORW is based on an appropriate time scale. The algorithm allows us to calculate the loss-of-load probability (LOLP) on an hourly basis, fully incorporating the variability of the wind resource into the calculation. This makes it possible to obtain a more accurate assessment of reliability of systems that include wind generation when system reliability is a concern .
- Research Organization:
- National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC36-99GO10337
- OSTI ID:
- 788750
- Report Number(s):
- NREL/CP-500-30363; TRN: AH200136%%216
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: AWEA's WINDPOWER 2001 Conference, Washington, DC (US), 06/04/2001--06/07/2001; Other Information: PBD: 18 Sep 2001
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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