Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Analysis of size options
This report presents the results of the deliberations of the interagency group formed to study the costs and benefits of expanding the size of the SPR. The study concentrated on severe oil supply disruptions involving sharp reductions in world oil production that were 2 to 4 times larger than the largest 1970s interruption. The disruption sizes and estimated probability of occurrence of these scenarios were supplied by the CIA. The most critical part of the CIA's analysis was the assessment of likelihood of these cases occurring. The CIA approached the likelihood problem by combining an examination of past oil supply disruptions with qualitative analysis of important oil market and regional trends. The study group then used statistical techniques and probability distributions to synthesize the historical data with CIA evaluations of as yet unobserved events. The SPR size study assumed direct purchases of SPR oil and did not assume the use of alternative financing mechanisms. Members of the working group with foreign policy and national security responsibilities provided an in-depth review of strategic considerations affecting SPR size. A number of prior studies, some classified, have addressed the strategic importance and insurance value of the SPR to the US and its allies. The results of these studies have also been incorporated in the current effort. 10 refs., 5 figs.
- Research Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (USA)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- DOE/MA
- OSTI ID:
- 7081123
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/IE-0016; ON: DE90006328
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
PETROLEUM
SUPPLY DISRUPTION
STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE
SIZE
CAPACITY
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
ENERGY DEMAND
FINANCING
FUEL CONSUMPTION
GLOBAL ASPECTS
IMPORTS
MARKET
DEMAND
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
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RESERVES
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