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Title: Long-Term Scenarios of Transportation Decarbonization

Conference ·
OSTI ID:2228665

Achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 requires aggressive curbing of transportation emissions, currently the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the fastest growing source of emissions in many countries. Transportation, a heterogeneous sector with many different passenger and freight travel modes and applications, will require a portfolio of solutions to decarbonize. To inform how to achieve significant emissions reductions in U.S. passenger and freight mobility, researchers used the Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model to explore many transformation pathways under expert-informed bounding ranges of assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancements, and policies. Researchers performed more than 2,000 simulations to explore possible transformation pathways and found that a combination of technological, behavioral, and policy strategies enables a staggering 89% reduction in transportation GHG emissions by 2050. Key is the rapid adoption of zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs) for all on-road passenger and freight applications, alongside a simultaneous decarbonization of electricity (supported by managed charging and proper planning). Managing travel demand growth can ease the transition by reducing the requisite amount of clean electricity and sustainable fuels supply.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Strategic Analysis Team
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
OSTI ID:
2228665
Report Number(s):
NREL/PO-5400-87963; MainId:88738; UUID:d93ebfed-1921-46f1-8b80-3e65c005e5a6; MainAdminID:71181
Resource Relation:
Conference: Presented at the 16th Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) Annual Meeting, 14-16 November 2023, Venice, Italy
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English