Induced seismicity potential based on probabilistic geomechanics for the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE project

McCormack, Kevin L.; Bratton, Tom R.; Chen, Ting; McPherson, Brian J.

doi:10.1190/geo2021-0704.1

Title: Induced seismicity potential based on probabilistic geomechanics for the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE project

Journal Article · Fri Sep 23 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Geophysics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1190/geo2021-0704.1· OSTI ID:1894839

McCormack, Kevin L. ^[1]; Bratton, Tom R. ^[2];

^[3];

^[1]

University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)
Tom Bratton LLC, Littleton, CO (United States)
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Although geologic carbon sequestration projects have yet to induce — or may never induce — a damaging earthquake, experiences from other deep injection industries such as hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal systems, and saltwater disposal suggest that effective quantitative seismic risk assessment is necessary for deep saline carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects. One such imminent CCS project is the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III program. We use Monte Carlo probabilistic geomechanical analyses combined with observations of the geologic and operational parameters of the San Juan Basin site and suggest that this project is of low-induced seismic risk. The primary analysis is split into four sections. First, we assess the literature for faults and past seismicity, and at least five faulting scenarios are directly relevant. Second, we develop and calibrate an integrated earth model for the project site. Third, we perform Monte Carlo simulations that consider reasonable uncertainties of the geomechanical parameters. Of five tested faulting scenarios, only one presents high Coulomb failure functions, but fourth, we determine the risk to be low based on the combined lack of historical seismicity, the geologic framework of the faulting scenario, and the presence of saltwater injection at the same depth as the proposed supercritical carbon dioxide injection. The most sensitive parameters in the geomechanical calculations are the fault dip and the coefficient of friction. The least sensitive are the fault strike and the orientation of the maximum horizontal principal stress.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001; FE0031890

OSTI ID:: 1894839

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-21-30086

Journal Information:: Geophysics, Vol. 87, Issue 6; ISSN 0016-8033

Publisher:: Society of Exploration GeophysicistsCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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