The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

Dyreson, Ana; Devineni, Naresh; Turner, Sean W. D.; De Silva, Thushara; Miara, Ariel; Voisin, Nathalie; Cohen, Stuart; Macknick, Jordan

doi:10.1029/2021ef002554

Title: The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

Journal Article · Fri Apr 08 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Earth's Future

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002554· OSTI ID:1876564

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National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
City University of New York (CUNY), NY (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Identifying the sensitivity of future power systems to climate extremes must consider the concurrent effects of changing climate and evolving power systems. We investigated the sensitivity of a Western U.S. power system to isolated and combined heat and drought when it has low (5%) and moderate (31%) variable renewable energy shares, representing historic and future systems. We used an electricity operational model combined with a model of historically extreme drought (for hydropower and freshwater-reliant thermoelectric generators) over the Western U.S. and a synthetic, regionally extreme heat event in Southern California (for thermoelectric generators and electricity load). We found that the drought has the highest impact on summertime production cost (+10% to +12%), while temperature-based deratings have minimal effect (at most +1%). The Southern California heat wave scenario impacting load increases summertime regional net imports to Southern California by 10-14%, while the drought decreases them by 6-12%. Combined heat and drought conditions have a moderate effect on imports to Southern California (-2%) in the historic system and a stronger effect (+8%) in the future system. Southern California dependence on other regions decreases in the summertime with the moderate increase in variable renewable energy (-34% imports), but hourly peak regional imports are maintained under those infrastructure changes. By combining synthetic and historically driven conditions to test two infrastructures, we consolidate the importance of considering compounded heat wave and drought in planning studies and suggest that region-to-region energy transfers during peak periods are key to optimal operations under climate extremes.

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Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308; SC0018124; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1876564

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1886266

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-6A40-81221; PNNL-SA-168697; MainId:81994; UUID:c866b0f5-5891-4bdb-ab9e-917c64dc0d51; MainAdminID:64865

Journal Information:: Earth's Future, Vol. 10, Issue 6; ISSN 2328-4277

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

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