Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate

Shimura, T.; Pringle, W. J.; Mori, N.; Miyashita, T.; Yoshida, K.

doi:10.1029/2021gl097427

Title: Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate

Journal Article · Mon Mar 14 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097427· OSTI ID:1869916

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Kyoto Univ. (Japan)
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)
Kyoto Univ. (Japan); Swansea Univ. (United Kingdom)
Meteorological Research Inst. (MRI), Tsukuba (Japan)

For coastal adaptation purposes, it is important to estimate the climate related changes in extreme sea levels due to storm surges and ocean waves, in addition to mean sea level rise. In this study, we provide the first consistent and continuous estimation of projected changes in global storm surges and ocean waves from the past to the warmer future, based on an extremely high resolution global climate model. The spatial pattern in the trend of annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights is predominantly driven by changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. In the western North Pacific, future TC frequencies are projected to decrease, and the annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights show decreasing trends (-20 cm/century and -200 cm/century). Although highly intense tropical cyclones are enhanced in the warmer climate, highly extreme storm surges and wave heights do not necessarily increase due to the large natural variability.

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Research Organization:: Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) - KAKENHI; Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST); Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-06CH11357; 19K15099; 19H00782; JPMJFR205R

OSTI ID:: 1869916

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, Issue 6; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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