Improving the MJO Forecast of S2S Operation Models by Correcting Their Biases in Linear Dynamics

Wu, Jie; Jin, Fei‐Fei

doi:10.1029/2020gl091930

Title: Improving the MJO Forecast of S2S Operation Models by Correcting Their Biases in Linear Dynamics

Journal Article · Wed Mar 17 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091930· OSTI ID:1850894

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China Meteorological Administration, Beijing (China). National Climate Center. China Meteorological Administration‐Nanjing Univ. Joint Lab. for Climate Prediction Studies. Lab. for Climate Studies
Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences SOEST

The operational dynamic subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) models for Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasting mostly still suffer from systematic errors in capturing the MJO's key dynamic features, such as its growth rate and propagation speed. By deriving the linear dynamic operators using the linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach, we propose a method to partly correct the errors in MJO linear dynamic operators to improve the MJO predictions of three operational dynamic S2S models. Correcting the deficiencies of the too-fast decay rates and the unrealistic propagating phase speeds lead to MJO prediction skills being extended by approximately 2–4 days. The improvements are more significant for the models with larger biases in MJO amplitude and propagation. This approach in principle may be extendable to predictions of other types of climate variability such as ENSO on one hand, and possible inclusions of nonlinear dynamics effects on the other hand.

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Research Organization:: Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Key Research and Development Program of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0005110; 2018YFC1505906; 41905067; AGS-1813611

OSTI ID:: 1850894

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 48, Issue 6; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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