The impact of climate mitigation measures on near term climate forcers

Turnock, Steven T.; Smith, S.; O’Connor, F. M.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4222

Title: The impact of climate mitigation measures on near term climate forcers

Journal Article · Tue Oct 15 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4222· OSTI ID:1608552

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Met Office Hadley Center, Devon (United Kingdom)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Here we quantify the regional co-benefits to future air quality on annual to daily mean timescales from implementing mitigation measures to stabilise future climate. Two consistent future emissions pathways are used within the composition-climate model HadGEM3-UKCA: one is a reference pathway of future economic growth and development (REF), whilst the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) assumes the same development pathway but stabilises anthropogenic radiative forcing at 4.5 W m^-2 in 2100. Implementing greenhouse gas mitigation measures in RCP4.5 reduces global mean air pollutant emissions by up to 30% in the 2050s, in addition to mitigating climate. Annual mean surface concentrations of ozone and PM_2.5 decrease by 10-20% from the combined reductions in emissions and climate change. The number of days exceeding the World Health Organization’s (WHO) daily mean air quality standards are reduced by up 47 days for ozone and 15 days for PM_2.5 over different world regions. The air quality co-benefits from mitigation measures are mainly achieved from reductions in anthropogenic emissions, although benefits can be offset due to changes in climate. In terms of anthropogenic climate forcing, while the reduction in global mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) in 2050, relative to the present day, due to enacting carbon dioxide mitigation measures (-0.43 Wm^-2) is enhanced by decreases in tropospheric ozone (-0.26 Wm^-2) and methane (-0.2 W m^-2), it is partially offset by a positive aerosol ERF from reductions in aerosols (+0.35 Wm^-2). This study demonstrates that policies to mitigate climate change have added co-benefits for global and regional air quality on annual to daily timescales. However, the effectiveness of the greenhouse gas policies in reducing anthropogenic climate forcing is reduced in the near-term due to the combined changes in ozone and aerosols.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1608552

Report Number(s):: PNNL-ACT-SA-10411

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 10; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 2 works

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Title: The impact of climate mitigation measures on near term climate forcers

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