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Title: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 2. Changes in CO2 and CH4 Exchange Depend on Rates of Permafrost Thaw as Affected by Changes in Vegetation and Drainage

Journal Article · · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jg004645· OSTI ID:1574329
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton (Canada)
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
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Model projections of future CO2 and CH4 exchange in Arctic tundra diverge widely. Here we used ecosys to examine how climate change will affect CO2 and CH4 exchange in troughs, rims, and centers of a coastal polygonal tundra landscape at Barrow, AK. The model was shown to simulate diurnal and seasonal variation in CO2 and CH4 fluxes associated with those in air and soil temperatures (Ta and Ts) and soil water contents (θ) under current climate in 2014 and 2015. During RCP 8.5 climate change from 2015 to 2085, rising Ta, atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca), and precipitation (P) increased net primary productivity (NPP) from 50–150 g C m-2 y-1, consistent with current biometric estimates, to 200–250 g C m-2 y-1. Concurrent increases in heterotrophic respiration (Rh) were slightly smaller, so that net CO2 exchange rose from values of -25 (net emission) to +50 (net uptake) g C m-2 y-1 to ones of -10 to +65 g C m-2 y-1. Increases in net CO2 uptake were largely offset by increases in CH4 emissions from 0–6 to 1–20 g C m-2 y-1, reducing gains in net ecosystem productivity. As a result, these increases in net CO2 uptake and CH4 emissions were modeled with hydrological boundary conditions that were assumed not to change with climate. Both these increases were smaller if boundary conditions were gradually altered to increase landscape drainage during model runs with climate change.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; AC02‐05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1574329
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1515792
Journal Information:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences, Vol. 124, Issue 5; ISSN 2169-8953
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 17 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
tundra
Arctic
climate change
ecosys
CO2 exchange
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