Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Judi, David; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Waichler, Scott R.; Feng, Youcan; Wigmosta, Mark S.

doi:10.3390/w10060775

Title: Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Journal Article · Wed Jun 13 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Water (Basel)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060775· OSTI ID:1560144

Judi, David ^[1]; Rakowski, Cynthia L. ^[1]; Waichler, Scott R. ^[1];

^[1]; Wigmosta, Mark S. ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1560144

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-134615; WATEGH

Journal Information:: Water (Basel), Vol. 10, Issue 6; ISSN 2073-4441

Publisher:: MDPICopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 11 works

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