Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Bürgmann, Roland

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aap9234

Title: Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

Journal Article · Wed Mar 07 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Science Advances

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aap9234· OSTI ID:1479392

^[1];

^[2]

Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). School of Earth and Space Exploration
Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Department of Earth and Planetary Science

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km² will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km² considering sea level rise alone.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1479392

Journal Information:: Science Advances, Vol. 4, Issue 3; ISSN 2375-2548

Publisher:: AAASCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 69 works

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