Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Leimbach, Marian; Strefler, Jessica; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Weindl, Isabelle; Bertram, Christoph; Dietrich, Jan-Philipp; Luderer, Gunnar; Pehl, Michaja; Pietzcker, Robert; Piontek, Franziska; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bonsch, Markus; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Schultes, Anselm; Schwanitz, Jana; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Edenhofer, Ottmar

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015

Title: Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

Journal Article · Thu Aug 18 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Global Environmental Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015· OSTI ID:1353324

Kriegler, Elmar ^[1]; Bauer, Nico ^[1]; Popp, Alexander ^[1]; Humpenöder, Florian ^[1]; Leimbach, Marian ^[1]; Strefler, Jessica ^[1]; Baumstark, Lavinia ^[1]; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ^[2]; Hilaire, Jérôme ^[3]; Klein, David ^[1]; Mouratiadou, Ioanna ^[1]; Weindl, Isabelle ^[1]; Bertram, Christoph ^[1]; Dietrich, Jan-Philipp ^[1]; Luderer, Gunnar ^[1]; Pehl, Michaja ^[1]; Pietzcker, Robert ^[1]; Piontek, Franziska ^[1]; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ^[4]; Biewald, Anne ^[1] more »

Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), St. Lucia, QLD (Australia)
Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Mercator Research Inst. on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin (Germany)
Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Humboldt Univ. of Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranen Center on Climate Change, Milan (Italy)
National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, (Japan)
Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany); Mercator Research Inst. on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin (Germany)

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); European Union (EU)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1353324

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-117807; KP1703030

Journal Information:: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42; ISSN 0959-3780

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 333 works

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Fig. 3. (a) HRTEM images and diffraction patterns from three different directions of TCSP:Ce (x = 1.5). (b) Dispersion, grain image, and element mapping of O, Ca, Ce, P, and Sr by SEM in the TCSP:Ce (x = 1.5) phosphor. (c). HRTEM images of different lattice fringes, regions (red) and interfaces (blue) in biphasic system observed in TCSP:Ce (x = 2). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) Pan, Xin figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.19012985.v1	image	January 2022
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Societal decisions about climate mitigation will have dramatic impacts on eutrophication in the 21st century Sinha, E.; Michalak, A. M.; Calvin, K. V. Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08884-w	journal	February 2019
Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets Oshiro, Ken; Gi, Keii; Fujimori, Shinichiro Climatic Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02490-x	journal	July 2019
An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C3IAM Wei, Yi-Ming; Han, Rong; Liang, Qiao-Mei Natural Hazards, Vol. 92, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3297-9	journal	May 2018
Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries Heck, Vera; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0064-y	journal	January 2018
Robust climate change research: a review on multi-model analysis Duan, Hongbo; Zhang, Gupeng; Wang, Shouyang Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf8f9	journal	February 2019
MAgPIE 4 – a modular open-source framework for modeling global land systems Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1299-2019	journal	January 2019
Energy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy Fujimori, Shinichiro; Oshiro, Ken; Shiraki, Hiroto Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12730-4	journal	October 2019
Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time? Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Bauer, Nico Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2119 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0457	journal	April 2018
Large-scale bioenergy production: how to resolve sustainability trade-offs? Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e3b	journal	February 2018
Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Graham, Neal T.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Chen, Min Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b	journal	January 2020
Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals McCollum, David L.; Zhou, Wenji; Bertram, Christoph Nature Energy, Vol. 3, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z	journal	June 2018
Demand-side approaches for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C Mundaca, Luis; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Wilson, Charlie Energy Efficiency, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-018-9722-9	journal	August 2018
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A Novel ICT Framework for Sustainable Development Goals Kostoska, Olivera; Kocarev, Ljupco Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.3390/su11071961	journal	April 2019
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Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways Chen, Guangzhao; Li, Xia; Liu, Xiaoping Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x	journal	January 2020
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Terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity loss under future global land use change scenarios Chaudhary, Abhishek; Mooers, Arne O. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000282062	text	January 2018
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Rationale and experimental design Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000060650	text	January 2016
Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning Krause, A.; Haverd, V.; Poulter, B. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000098197	text	January 2019
Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning Krause, A.; Haverd, V.; Poulter, B. FID GEO https://doi.org/10.23689/fidgeo-4875	text	January 2019
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios Kim, HyeJin; Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Alkemade, Rob ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000305911	text	January 2018
MAgPIE 4 - A modular open source framework for modeling global land-systems Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian Geoscientific Model Development Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-295	posted_content	December 2018
Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5° C Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoît ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000261053	text	January 2018
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios Kim, HyeJin; Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Alkemade, Rob Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018	journal	January 2018
The impacts of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost of China, EU, and Japan under the constraints of the global carbon emission space Dai, Han-Cheng; Zhang, Hai-Bin; Wang, Wen-Tao Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol. 8, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.09.003	journal	December 2017
A methodology and implementation of automated emissions harmonization for use in Integrated Assessment Models Gidden, Matthew J.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; van den Berg, Maarten Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 105 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.04.002	journal	July 2018
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012	journal	January 2017
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006	journal	January 2017
National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt Abdelkader, A.; Elshorbagy, A.; Tuninetti, M. Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 639 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.197	journal	October 2018
The Northeast Atlantic is running out of excess carbonate in the horizon of cold-water corals communities Fontela, Marcos; Pérez, Fiz F.; Carracedo, Lidia I. Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71793-2	journal	September 2020
The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; K. C., Krishna Bahadur PLOS ONE, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0228305	journal	February 2020
Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework Sellers, Samuel; Ebi, Kristie International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 15, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15010003	journal	December 2017
Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework Yang, Shuhui; Cui, Xuefeng Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205712	journal	October 2019
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century Gidden, Matthew J.; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J. Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus https://doi.org/10.34657/9079	text	January 2019
Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test Glanemann, Nicole; Willner, Sven N.; Levermann, Anders [London] : Nature Publishing Group UK https://doi.org/10.34657/9350	text	January 2020
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J. Amsterdam : Elsevier https://doi.org/10.34657/9926	text	January 2016
Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections Kwiatkowski, Lester; Torres, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent Biogeosciences, Vol. 17, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020	journal	January 2020
Country-resolved combined emission and socio-economic pathways based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios Gütschow, Johannes; Jeffery, M. Louise; Günther, Annika Earth System Science Data, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1005-2021	journal	March 2021
Global-scale benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers using structural measures Tiggeloven, Timothy; de Moel, Hans; Winsemius, Hessel C. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 20, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020	journal	January 2020

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