Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; Gerten, Dieter; Caminade, Cyril; Gosling, Simon N.; Hendy, Erica J.; Kassie, Belay T.; Kissling, W. Daniel; Muri, Helene; Oschlies, Andreas; Smith, Steven J.

doi:10.1002/2016ef000389

Title: Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

Journal Article · Wed Nov 23 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Earth's Future

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ef000389· OSTI ID:1343941

Irvine, Peter J. ^[1]; Kravitz, Ben ^[2]; Lawrence, Mark G. ^[3]; Gerten, Dieter ^[4]; Caminade, Cyril ^[5]; Gosling, Simon N. ^[6]; Hendy, Erica J. ^[7]; Kassie, Belay T. ^[8]; Kissling, W. Daniel ^[9]; Muri, Helene ^[10]; Oschlies, Andreas ^[11]; Smith, Steven J. ^[12]

Inst. for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (Germany); Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division
Inst. for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (Germany)
Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany). Research Domain of Earth System Analysis; Humboldt Univ. of Berlin (Germany). Geography Dept.
Univ. of Liverpool (United Kingdom). Inst. of Infection and Global Health
Univ. of Nottingham (United Kingdom). School of Geography
Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom). School of Earth Sciences
Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Dept. of Agricultural and Biological Engineering
Univ. of Amsterdam (Netherlands). Inst. for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics
Univ. of Oslo (Norway). Dept. of Geosciences
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.

Here, despite a growing literature on the projected physical climate responses to solar geoengineering — i.e. proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo — there is no clear picture of the subsequent impacts of such a modified climate on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. Here we argue that engaging the climate impacts research community is necessary to evaluate and communicate how solar geoengineering might reduce some risks, exacerbate others, and give rise to novel risks. We review the current state of knowledge on consequences of solar geoengineering and conclude that a thorough assessment of its impacts can proceed by building upon the frameworks developed for assessing impacts of climate change. However, the climate response to solar geoengineering will depend on the form under consideration and the manner in which it is deployed, presenting a novel challenge for the climate impacts research community.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Univ. of Oslo (Norway); GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; Medical Research Council (MRC) (United Kingdom); Norwegian Research Council (Norway); German Research Foundation (DFG)

Contributing Organization:: Univ. of Nottingham (United Kingdom); Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Univ. of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Inst. for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (Germany); Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States); Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Humboldt Univ. of Berlin (Germany); Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830; MR/M0501633/1; 229760/E10; 261862/E10; SPP 1689

OSTI ID:: 1343941

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1346282

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-115412

Journal Information:: Earth's Future, Vol. 5, Issue 1; ISSN 2328-4277

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 39 works

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Impacts, effectiveness and regional inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4 solar radiation management scenarios Yu, Xiaoyong; Moore, John C.; Cui, Xuefeng Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 129 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.02.010	journal	June 2015
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Quantifying and Comparing Effects of Climate Engineering Methods on the Earth System Sonntag, Sebastian; Ferrer González, Miriam; Ilyina, Tatiana Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000620	journal	February 2018
Climate engineering–induced changes in correlations between Earth system variables—implications for appropriate indicator selection Mengis, Nadine; Keller, David P.; Rickels, Wilfried Climatic Change, Vol. 153, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02389-7	journal	February 2019
Evoking equity as a rationale for solar geoengineering research? Scrutinizing emerging expert visions of equity Flegal, Jane A.; Gupta, Aarti International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-017-9377-6	journal	September 2017
Coral reef aerosol emissions in response to irradiance stress in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia Cropp, Roger; Gabric, Albert; van Tran, Dien Ambio, Vol. 47, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-018-1018-y	journal	February 2018
Holistic Assessment of SO ₂ Injections Using CESM1(WACCM): Introduction to the Special Issue Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Tilmes, Simone Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029293	journal	January 2019
Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals Lawrence, Mark G.; Schäfer, Stefan; Muri, Helene Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05938-3	journal	September 2018
Potentially dangerous consequences for biodiversity of solar geoengineering implementation and termination Trisos, Christopher H.; Amatulli, Giuseppe; Gurevitch, Jessica Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 2, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0431-0	journal	January 2018
How do we overcome abrupt degradation of marine ecosystems and meet the challenge of heat waves and climate extremes? Ainsworth, Tracy D.; Hurd, Catriona L.; Gates, Ruth D. Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14901	journal	December 2019
Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models Bonan, Gordon B.; Doney, Scott C. Science, Vol. 359, Issue 6375 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam8328	journal	February 2018
Estimating the Impact of Artificially Injected Stratospheric Aerosols on the Global Mean Surface Temperature in the 21th Century Soldatenko, Sergei Climate, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040085	journal	October 2018
Climate engineering and the ocean: effects on biogeochemistry and primary production Lauvset, Siv K.; Tjiputra, Jerry; Muri, Helene Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5675-2017	journal	January 2017
Complementing CO₂ emission reduction by solar radiation management might strongly enhance future welfare Helwegen, Koen G.; Wieners, Claudia E.; Frank, Jason E. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-453-2019	journal	January 2019

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