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Title: An improved empirical model of electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit based on upstream solar wind conditions

Journal Article · · Space Weather
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001409· OSTI ID:1304819
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [2];  [5];  [6]
  1. Space Science Institute, Boulder, CO (United States). Center for Space Plasma Physics; New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). ISR-1
  3. Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ (United States)
  4. Space Science Institute, Boulder, CO (United States). Center for Space Plasma Physics; Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Climate and Space Engineering
  5. Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy
  6. SES Engineering, Betzdorf (Luxembourg)
+ Show Author Affiliations

In this study, a new empirical model of the electron fluxes and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) is introduced, based on observations by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. The model provides flux predictions in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV, as a function of local time, energy, and the strength of the solar wind electric field (the negative product of the solar wind speed and the z component of the magnetic field). Given appropriate upstream solar wind measurements, the model provides a forecast of the fluxes at GEO with a ~1 h lead time. Model predictions are tested against in-sample observations from LANL satellites and also against out-of-sample observations from the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II detector on the AMC-12 satellite. The model does not reproduce all structure seen in the observations. However, for the intervals studied here (quiet and storm times) the normalized root-mean-square deviation < ~0.3. It is intended that the model will improve forecasting of the spacecraft environment at GEO and also provide improved boundary/input conditions for physical models of the magnetosphere.

Research Organization:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
OSTI ID:
1304819
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-16-23407
Journal Information:
Space Weather, Vol. 14, Issue 7; ISSN 1542-7390
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 37 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (6)

The Reprise Special Collection for the 2001 Space Weather Monograph journal April 2018
Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles journal October 2017
Environmental Conditions During the Reported Charging Anomalies of the Two Geosynchronous Satellites: Telstar 401 and Galaxy 15 journal November 2018
The System Science Development of Local Time‐Dependent 40‐keV Electron Flux Models for Geostationary Orbit journal June 2019
Systematic Analysis of Machine Learning and Feature Selection Techniques for Prediction of the Kp Index journal October 2019
Nowcasting and Predicting the Kp Index Using Historical Values and Real-Time Observations text January 2019

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Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
Heliospheric and Magnetospheric Physics