The effects of uncertainty on the analysis of atmospheric deposition
- Argonne National Lab., Argonne, IL (US)
- Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (US)
Research efforts on the problem of acid ran are directed at improving current scientific understanding in critical areas, including sources of precursor emissions, the transport and transformation of pollutants in the atmosphere, the deposition of acidic species, and the chemical and biological effects of acid deposition on aquatic systems, materials, forests, crops and human health. The general goal of these research efforts is to characterize the current situation and to develop analytical models which can be used to predict the response of various systems to changes in critical parameters. This paper describes a framework which enables one to characterize uncertainty at each major stage of the modeling process. Following a general presentation of the modeling framework, a description is given of the methods chosen to characterize uncertainty for each major step. Analysis is then performed to illustrate the effects of uncertainty on future lake acidification in the Adirondacks Park area of upstate New York.
- OSTI ID:
- 7037639
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-880679-
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 81. annual meeting of Air Pollution Control Association, Dallas, TX (USA), 19-24 Jun 1988; Other Information: Technical Paper 88-104.3; Related Information: Volume 6
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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POLICY AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
ACID RAIN
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
ENVIRONMENT
HEALTH HAZARDS
AIR POLLUTION MONITORING
AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS
CROPS
EMISSION
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
FORESTS
HUMAN POPULATIONS
POLLUTANTS
PRECURSOR
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE
ECOSYSTEMS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
HAZARDS
MASS TRANSFER
POPULATIONS
RAIN
290300* - Energy Planning & Policy- Environment
Health
& Safety
540120 - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (1990-)
293000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Policy
Legislation
& Regulation
990200 - Mathematics & Computers