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Title: Dynamically combining climate models to “supermodel” the tropical Pacific

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066562· OSTI ID:1235948
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [4]
  1. Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen Norway
  2. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute De Bilt Netherlands
  3. Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour Radboud University Nijmegen Nijmegen Netherlands
  4. Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen Norway, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Colorado Boulder Boulder Colorado USA
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Abstract We construct an interactive ensemble of two different climate models to improve simulation of key aspects of tropical Pacific climate. Our so‐called supermodel is based on two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) coupled to a single ocean GCM, which is driven by a weighted average of the air‐sea fluxes. Optimal weights are determined using a machine learning algorithm to minimize sea surface temperature errors over the tropical Pacific. This coupling strategy synchronizes atmospheric variability in the two AGCMs over the equatorial Pacific, where it improves the representation of ocean‐atmosphere interaction and the climate state. In particular, the common double Intertropical Convergence Zone error is suppressed, and the positive Bjerknes feedback improves substantially to match observations well, and the negative heat flux feedback is also much improved. This study supports the concept of supermodeling as a promising multimodel ensemble strategy to improve weather and climate predictions.

Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
DE‐SC0005238
OSTI ID:
1235948
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1235949
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 43 Journal Issue: 1; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 22 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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