On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback

Andrews, Timothy; Bodas‐Salcedo, Alejandro; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Dong, Yue; Armour, Kyle C.; Paynter, David; Lin, Pu; Modak, Angshuman; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Cole, Jason N. S.; Medeiros, Brian; Benedict, James J.; Douville, Hervé; Roehrig, Romain; Koshiro, Tsuyoshi; Kawai, Hideaki; Ogura, Tomoo; Dufresne, Jean‐Louis; Allan, Richard P.; Liu, Chunlei

doi:10.1029/2022jd036675

Title: On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback

Journal Article · Fri Aug 19 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036675· OSTI ID:1891515

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Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)
Univ. of Stockholm (Sweden)
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC (Canada)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Miami, Coral Gables, FL (United States); Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Univ.de Toulouse Météo‐France CNRS (France)
Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba (Japan)
Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency Tsukuba Japan
École Polytechnique, Paris (France)
Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
Guangdong Ocean Univ., Zhanjiang (China)

Abstract We investigate the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of sea‐surface temperature (SST) change in 14 Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) forced with observed variations in SST and sea‐ice over the historical record from 1871 to near‐present. We find that over 1871–1980, the Earth warmed with feedbacks largely consistent and strongly correlated with long‐term climate sensitivity feedbacks (diagnosed from corresponding atmosphere‐ocean GCM abrupt‐4xCO2 simulations). Post 1980, however, the Earth warmed with unusual trends in tropical Pacific SSTs (enhanced warming in the west, cooling in the east) and cooling in the Southern Ocean that drove climate feedback to be uncorrelated with—and indicating much lower climate sensitivity than—that expected for long‐term CO ₂ increase. We show that these conclusions are not strongly dependent on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) II SST data set used to force the AGCMs, though the magnitude of feedback post 1980 is generally smaller in nine AGCMs forced with alternative HadISST1 SST boundary conditions. We quantify a “pattern effect” (defined as the difference between historical and long‐term CO ₂ feedback) equal to 0.48 ± 0.47 [5%–95%] W m ⁻² K ⁻¹ for the time‐period 1871–2010 when the AGCMs are forced with HadISST1 SSTs, or 0.70 ± 0.47 [5%–95%] W m ⁻² K ⁻¹ when forced with AMIP II SSTs. Assessed changes in the Earth's historical energy budget agree with the AGCM feedback estimates. Furthermore satellite observations of changes in top‐of‐atmosphere radiative fluxes since 1985 suggest that the pattern effect was particularly strong over recent decades but may be waning post 2014.

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Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022070; DE‐SC0022070

OSTI ID:: 1891515

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1889755

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 127, Issue 18; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence Sherwood, S. C.; Webb, M. J.; Annan, J. D. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 58, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678	journal	September 2020
Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012 Allan, Richard P.; Liu, Chunlei; Loeb, Norman G. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060962	journal	August 2014
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Variation in climate sensitivity and feedback parameters during the historical period: VARIATION IN CLIMATE SENSITIVITY Gregory, J. M.; Andrews, T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068406	journal	April 2016

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