Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars
Abstract
In steep wildfire-burned terrains, intense rainfall can produce large runoff that can trigger highly destructive debris flows. However, the ability to accurately characterize and forecast debris flow susceptibility in burned terrains using physics-based tools remains limited. Here, we augment the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess postfire debris flow susceptibility over a regional domain. We perform hindcast simulations using high-resolution weather-radar-derived precipitation and reanalysis data to drive non-burned baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Our simulations focus on January 2021 when an atmospheric river triggered numerous debris flows within a wildfire burn scar in Big Sur – one of which destroyed California's famous Highway 1. Compared to the baseline, our burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge and shorter lags between rainfall onset and peak discharge, consistent with streamflow observations at nearby US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gage sites. For the 404 catchments located in the simulated burn scar area, median catchment-area-normalized peak discharge increases by ~ 450 % compared to the baseline. Catchments with anomalously high catchment-area-normalized peak discharge correspond well with post-event field-based and remotely sensed debris flow observations. We suggest that our regional postfire debrismore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[5];
[1]
- Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)
- Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); California Institute of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab. (JPL)
- Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)
- Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States); Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1902322
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-06CH11357; 80NM0018D0004
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (Online); Journal Volume: 22; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 1684-9981
- Publisher:
- Copernicus Publications, EGU
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Li, Chuxuan, Handwerger, Alexander L., Wang, Jiali, Yu, Wei, Li, Xiang, Finnegan, Noah J., Xie, Yingying, Buscarnera, Giuseppe, and Horton, Daniel E. Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars. United States: N. p., 2022.
Web. doi:10.5194/nhess-22-2317-2022.
Li, Chuxuan, Handwerger, Alexander L., Wang, Jiali, Yu, Wei, Li, Xiang, Finnegan, Noah J., Xie, Yingying, Buscarnera, Giuseppe, & Horton, Daniel E. Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2317-2022
Li, Chuxuan, Handwerger, Alexander L., Wang, Jiali, Yu, Wei, Li, Xiang, Finnegan, Noah J., Xie, Yingying, Buscarnera, Giuseppe, and Horton, Daniel E. Wed .
"Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2317-2022. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1902322.
@article{osti_1902322,
title = {Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars},
author = {Li, Chuxuan and Handwerger, Alexander L. and Wang, Jiali and Yu, Wei and Li, Xiang and Finnegan, Noah J. and Xie, Yingying and Buscarnera, Giuseppe and Horton, Daniel E.},
abstractNote = {In steep wildfire-burned terrains, intense rainfall can produce large runoff that can trigger highly destructive debris flows. However, the ability to accurately characterize and forecast debris flow susceptibility in burned terrains using physics-based tools remains limited. Here, we augment the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess postfire debris flow susceptibility over a regional domain. We perform hindcast simulations using high-resolution weather-radar-derived precipitation and reanalysis data to drive non-burned baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Our simulations focus on January 2021 when an atmospheric river triggered numerous debris flows within a wildfire burn scar in Big Sur – one of which destroyed California's famous Highway 1. Compared to the baseline, our burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge and shorter lags between rainfall onset and peak discharge, consistent with streamflow observations at nearby US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gage sites. For the 404 catchments located in the simulated burn scar area, median catchment-area-normalized peak discharge increases by ~ 450 % compared to the baseline. Catchments with anomalously high catchment-area-normalized peak discharge correspond well with post-event field-based and remotely sensed debris flow observations. We suggest that our regional postfire debris flow susceptibility analysis demonstrates WRF-Hydro as a compelling new physics-based tool whose utility could be further extended via coupling to sediment erosion and transport models and/or ensemble-based operational weather forecasts. Given the high-fidelity performance of our augmented version of WRF-Hydro, as well as its potential usage in probabilistic hazard forecasts, we argue for its continued development and application in postfire hydrologic and natural hazard assessments.},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-22-2317-2022},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (Online)},
number = 7,
volume = 22,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jul 27 00:00:00 EDT 2022},
month = {Wed Jul 27 00:00:00 EDT 2022}
}
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