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Title: We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems

Abstract

Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO2, the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advancesmore » in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [1];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [15]; ORCiD logo [16];  [1];  [17];  [17] more »;  [12];  [18];  [19];  [12];  [7];  [11];  [20];  [21];  [22];  [23];  [24];  [1];  [25] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT (United States)
  2. Innovative Breakthrough Energy Technology Ltd., Colwood, BC (Canada); Cascade Inst., Colwood, BC (Canada)
  3. Babson College, Wellesley, MA (United States)
  4. Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States)
  5. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
  6. Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States)
  7. Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Bolin Center for Climate Research
  8. Inst. of Ocean Science (IOS), Sidney, BC (Canada)
  9. Northumbria Univ., Newcastle-upon-Tyne (United Kingdom)
  10. Colgate University, Hamilton, NY (United States)
  11. Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  12. Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
  13. International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, Pawlet, VT (United States)
  14. Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States)
  15. Wildlife Conservation Society, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
  16. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Inst.
  17. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
  18. Univ. of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL (United States)
  19. Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany). Alfred Wegener Inst., Permafrost Research Section
  20. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR)
  21. Univ. of Eastern Finland, Kuopio (Finland)
  22. Cascade Inst., Colwood, BC (Canada)
  23. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany, State Key Lab. of Vegetation and Environmental Change; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
  24. Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States)
  25. Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1875338
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1877156
Report Number(s):
SAND2022-9151J
Journal ID: ISSN 2296-665X
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; 916565; 1916567; 1916576; 1906381; 1931333; NA0003525
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Frontiers in Environmental Science
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: X; Journal ID: ISSN 2296-665X
Publisher:
Frontiers Research Foundation
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; permafrost climate feedback; Arctic; Boreal; climate policy; renewable energy; ecosystem feedback; Earth stewardship; permafrost domain

Citation Formats

Abbott, Benjamin W., Brown, Michael, Carey, Joanna C., Ernakovich, Jessica, Frederick, Jennifer M., Guo, Laodong, Hugelius, Gustaf, Lee, Raymond M., Loranty, Michael M., Macdonald, Robie, Mann, Paul J., Natali, Susan M., Olefeldt, David, Pearson, Pam, Rec, Abigail, Robards, Martin, Salmon, Verity G., Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara, Schädel, Christina, Schuur, Edward G., Shakil, Sarah, Shogren, Arial J., Strauss, Jens, Tank, Suzanne E., Thornton, Brett F., Treharne, Rachael, Turetsky, Merritt, Voigt, Carolina, Wright, Nancy, Yang, Yuanhe, Zarnetske, Jay P., Zhang, Qiwen, and Zolkos, Scott. We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems. United States: N. p., 2022. Web. doi:10.3389/fenvs.2022.889428.
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Abbott, Benjamin W., Brown, Michael, Carey, Joanna C., Ernakovich, Jessica, Frederick, Jennifer M., Guo, Laodong, Hugelius, Gustaf, Lee, Raymond M., Loranty, Michael M., Macdonald, Robie, Mann, Paul J., Natali, Susan M., Olefeldt, David, Pearson, Pam, Rec, Abigail, Robards, Martin, Salmon, Verity G., Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara, Schädel, Christina, Schuur, Edward G., Shakil, Sarah, Shogren, Arial J., Strauss, Jens, Tank, Suzanne E., Thornton, Brett F., Treharne, Rachael, Turetsky, Merritt, Voigt, Carolina, Wright, Nancy, Yang, Yuanhe, Zarnetske, Jay P., Zhang, Qiwen, & Zolkos, Scott. We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems. United States. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.889428
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Abbott, Benjamin W., Brown, Michael, Carey, Joanna C., Ernakovich, Jessica, Frederick, Jennifer M., Guo, Laodong, Hugelius, Gustaf, Lee, Raymond M., Loranty, Michael M., Macdonald, Robie, Mann, Paul J., Natali, Susan M., Olefeldt, David, Pearson, Pam, Rec, Abigail, Robards, Martin, Salmon, Verity G., Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara, Schädel, Christina, Schuur, Edward G., Shakil, Sarah, Shogren, Arial J., Strauss, Jens, Tank, Suzanne E., Thornton, Brett F., Treharne, Rachael, Turetsky, Merritt, Voigt, Carolina, Wright, Nancy, Yang, Yuanhe, Zarnetske, Jay P., Zhang, Qiwen, and Zolkos, Scott. Wed . "We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems". United States. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.889428. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1875338.
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@article{osti_1875338,
title = {We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems},
author = {Abbott, Benjamin W. and Brown, Michael and Carey, Joanna C. and Ernakovich, Jessica and Frederick, Jennifer M. and Guo, Laodong and Hugelius, Gustaf and Lee, Raymond M. and Loranty, Michael M. and Macdonald, Robie and Mann, Paul J. and Natali, Susan M. and Olefeldt, David and Pearson, Pam and Rec, Abigail and Robards, Martin and Salmon, Verity G. and Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara and Schädel, Christina and Schuur, Edward G. and Shakil, Sarah and Shogren, Arial J. and Strauss, Jens and Tank, Suzanne E. and Thornton, Brett F. and Treharne, Rachael and Turetsky, Merritt and Voigt, Carolina and Wright, Nancy and Yang, Yuanhe and Zarnetske, Jay P. and Zhang, Qiwen and Zolkos, Scott},
abstractNote = {Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO2, the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.},
doi = {10.3389/fenvs.2022.889428},
journal = {Frontiers in Environmental Science},
number = X,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jun 29 00:00:00 EDT 2022},
month = {Wed Jun 29 00:00:00 EDT 2022}
}
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https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.889428
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Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios
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Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
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Towards Integrated Ethical and Scientific Analysis of Geoengineering: A Research Agenda
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Methane production and bubble emissions from arctic lakes: Isotopic implications for source pathways and ages
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Chronic leak detection for single and multiphase flow: A critical review on onshore and offshore subsea and arctic conditions
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
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Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO 2 and CH 4 emissions
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Logging impacts on the biogeochemistry of boreal forest soils and nutrient export to aquatic systems: A review
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Increase in the rate and uniformity of coastline erosion in Arctic Alaska: HIGHER AND MORE UNIFORM ARCTIC EROSION
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Dynamic ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet driven by sustained glacier retreat
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Patterns and persistence of hydrologic carbon and nutrient export from collapsing upland permafrost
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Mitigation of Arctic permafrost carbon loss through stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
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The climate change mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
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Drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts
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Cumulative Environmental Impacts in the Gwich’in Cultural Landscape
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Permafrost is warming at a global scale
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Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change
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Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps
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Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model
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Onshore Thermokarst Primes Subsea Permafrost Degradation
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Vulnerability of the Permafrost Landscapes in the Eastern Chukotka Coastal Plains to Human Impact and Climate Change
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Circumpolar spatio-temporal patterns and contributing climatic factors of wildfire activity in the Arctic tundra from 2001–2015
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Analysis of the Arctic System for Freshwater Cycle Intensification: Observations and Expectations
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Aragonite Undersaturation in the Arctic Ocean: Effects of Ocean Acidification and Sea Ice Melt
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Brown carbon from biomass burning imposes strong circum-Arctic warming
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Identifying Barriers to Estimating Carbon Release From Interacting Feedbacks in a Warming Arctic
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Spiraling Down Hillslopes: Nutrient Uptake from Water Tracks in a Warming Arctic
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Complexity revealed in the greening of the Arctic
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Mercury reallocation in thawing subarctic peatlands
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Permafrost Carbon and CO2 Pathways Differ at Contrasting Coastal Erosion Sites in the Canadian Arctic
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Phosphorus rather than nitrogen regulates ecosystem carbon dynamics after permafrost thaw
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Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point
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Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment
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Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals
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Potential impacts of future ocean acidification on marine ecosystems and fisheries: current knowledge and recommendations for future research
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Ocean Acidification: The Other CO 2 Problem
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Substantial twentieth-century Arctic warming caused by ozone-depleting substances
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Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils
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Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests
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Ecological Response to Permafrost Thaw and Consequences for Local and Global Ecosystem Services
journal, November 2018

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
journal, April 2015

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Thaw-driven mass wasting couples slopes with downstream systems, and effects propagate through Arctic drainage networks
journal, January 2021

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Ecological restoration of rich fens in Europe and North America: from trial and error to an evidence-based approach
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JULES-CN: a coupled terrestrial carbon–nitrogen scheme (JULES vn5.1)
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A new approach to simulate peat accumulation, degradation and stability in a global land surface scheme (JULES vn5.8_accumulate_soil) for northern and temperate peatlands
journal, January 2022

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Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change
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Tundra wildfire triggers sustained lateral nutrient loss in Alaskan Arctic
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Unprecedented Increases in Total and Methyl Mercury Concentrations Downstream of Retrogressive Thaw Slumps in the Western Canadian Arctic
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Siberian taiga and tundra fire regimes from 2001–2020
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Sea ice extents continue to set new records: Arctic, Antarctic, and global results
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People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years
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Estimating the Economic Impact of the Permafrost Carbon Feedback
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Sea-ice loss amplifies summertime decadal CO2 increase in the western Arctic Ocean
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Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem
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The Arctic Coastal Dynamics Database: A New Classification Scheme and Statistics on Arctic Permafrost Coastlines
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Massive blow-out craters formed by hydrate-controlled methane expulsion from the Arctic seafloor
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Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
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Protection of Permafrost Soils from Thawing by Increasing Herbivore Density
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Longer thaw seasons increase nitrogen availability for leaching during fall in tundra soils
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Solar photovoltaics is ready to power a sustainable future
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Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions
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Direct observation of permafrost degradation and rapid soil carbon loss in tundra
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Expanding infrastructure and growing anthropogenic impacts along Arctic coasts
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A frozen feast: thawing permafrost increases plant-available nitrogen in subarctic peatlands
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Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia
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Saltwater Intrusion Intensifies Coastal Permafrost Thaw
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The Arctic Ocean Estuary
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Carbon loss from boreal forest wildfires offset by increased dominance of deciduous trees
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North American boreal forests are a large carbon source due to wildfires from 1986 to 2016
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Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
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Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals
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Accelerating permafrost collapse on the eastern Tibetan Plateau
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Nitrous oxide emissions from permafrost-affected soils
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Arctic fires re-emerging
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Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon
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Heavy metals in the Arctic: Distribution and enrichment of five metals in Alaskan soils
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Arctic River Dissolved and Biogenic Silicon Exports—Current Conditions and Future Changes With Warming
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We cannot shrug off the shoulder seasons: addressing knowledge and data gaps in an Arctic headwater
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Climate Change Drives Widespread and Rapid Thermokarst Development in Very Cold Permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic
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Multiple Feedbacks Contribute to a Centennial Legacy of Reindeer on Tundra Vegetation
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Warming Effects of Spring Rainfall Increase Methane Emissions From Thawing Permafrost
journal, February 2019

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How does climate change influence arctic mercury?
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Reorganization of vegetation, hydrology and soil carbon after permafrost degradation across heterogeneous boreal landscapes
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Reviews and syntheses: Changing ecosystem influences on soil thermal regimes in northern high-latitude permafrost regions
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