Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent
Abstract
Climate change has been projected to increase the intensity and magnitude of extreme temperature in Indonesia. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a strategy to temporarily combat global warming, buying time for negative emissions. Though the global impacts of SRM have been extensively studied in recent years, regional impacts, especially in the tropics, have received much less attention. This paper investigates the potential stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering to modify mean and extreme temperature, as well as the relative humidity and wet bulb temperature (WBT) change over Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) based on simulations from three different earth system models. We applied statistical downscaling and corrected the bias of model output to reproduce historical temperatures and relative humidity over IMC. We compared SRM as specified by the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 experiment – 5 Tg of SO2 into the lower stratosphere between 2020 and 2069 – concurrent with the RCP4.5 emissions scenario. SRM is able to significantly reduce the temperature means and extremes, and although differences in magnitude of response and spatial pattern occur, there is a generally consistent response. Additionally, the spatial response of changes forced by RCP4.5 scenario and SRM impact is notably heterogeneous inmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
- Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya (Indonesia). Centre for Disaster Mitigation and Climate Change; Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya (Indonesia)
- Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Universitas International Semen Indonesia (UISI), Gresik (Indonesia)
- Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang (Indonesia)
- Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta (Indonesia)
- Beijing Normal University (BNU), Beijing (China)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1864143
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-161429
Journal ID: ISSN 0899-8418
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Climatology
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 0899-8418
- Publisher:
- Royal Meteorological Society
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change; downscaling; extreme; geoengineering; humid-heat; Maritime Continent
Citation Formats
Kuswanto, Heri, Kravitz, Ben, Miftahurrohmah, Brina, Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman, Sopahaluwaken, Ardhasena, and Moore, John. Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent. United States: N. p., 2021.
Web. doi:10.1002/joc.7391.
Kuswanto, Heri, Kravitz, Ben, Miftahurrohmah, Brina, Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman, Sopahaluwaken, Ardhasena, & Moore, John. Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7391
Kuswanto, Heri, Kravitz, Ben, Miftahurrohmah, Brina, Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman, Sopahaluwaken, Ardhasena, and Moore, John. Wed .
"Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7391. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1864143.
@article{osti_1864143,
title = {Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent},
author = {Kuswanto, Heri and Kravitz, Ben and Miftahurrohmah, Brina and Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman and Sopahaluwaken, Ardhasena and Moore, John},
abstractNote = {Climate change has been projected to increase the intensity and magnitude of extreme temperature in Indonesia. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a strategy to temporarily combat global warming, buying time for negative emissions. Though the global impacts of SRM have been extensively studied in recent years, regional impacts, especially in the tropics, have received much less attention. This paper investigates the potential stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering to modify mean and extreme temperature, as well as the relative humidity and wet bulb temperature (WBT) change over Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) based on simulations from three different earth system models. We applied statistical downscaling and corrected the bias of model output to reproduce historical temperatures and relative humidity over IMC. We compared SRM as specified by the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 experiment – 5 Tg of SO2 into the lower stratosphere between 2020 and 2069 – concurrent with the RCP4.5 emissions scenario. SRM is able to significantly reduce the temperature means and extremes, and although differences in magnitude of response and spatial pattern occur, there is a generally consistent response. Additionally, the spatial response of changes forced by RCP4.5 scenario and SRM impact is notably heterogeneous in the archipelago, highlighting uncertainties that would be critical in assessing socio-economic consequences of both doing, and not doing SRM. In general, SRM has bigger impacts in reducing temperatures over land than oceans, and the southern monsoon region shows more variability. SRM is also effective at reducing the likelihood of WBT > 27OC events compared to RCP4.5 after some years of SRM deployment as well as during the post-termination period of SRM. Regional downscaling may be an effective tool in obtaining policy-relevant information about local effects of different future scenarios involving SRM.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.7391},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
number = 5,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 29 00:00:00 EDT 2021},
month = {Wed Sep 29 00:00:00 EDT 2021}
}
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