Bayesian analysis of a future β decay experiment's sensitivity to neutrino mass scale and ordering
Abstract
Bayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. We present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment’s sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the β-decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision β-decay experiment’s sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering, for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the electron-weighted neutrino mass within ~ 40meV after 1 year (90% credibility). Neutrino masses > 500meV could be measured within ≈ 5meV. Using only β-decay and external reactor neutrino data, we find that next-generation β-decay experiments could potentially constrain the mass ordering using a two-neutrino spectral model analysis. By calibrating mass ordering results, we identify reporting criteria that can be tuned to suppress false ordering claims. In some cases, a two-neutrino analysis can reveal that the mass ordering is inverted, an unobtainable result for the traditional one-neutrino analysis approach.
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- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Nuclear Physics (NP); National Science Foundation (NSF)
- Contributing Org.:
- The Project S Collaboration
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1836201
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1907698
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-817667
Journal ID: ISSN 2469-9985; 1027661; TRN: US2300280
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344; SC0020433; SC0019088; FG02-97ER41020; SC0012654; PHY1205100; SC0011091
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Physical Review. C
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 103; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 2469-9985
- Publisher:
- American Physical Society (APS)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS; beta decay; neutrinos; Bayesian methods; hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm; spectrometers & spectroscopic techniques
Citation Formats
Ashtari Esfahani, A., Betancourt, M., Bogorad, Z., Böser, S., Buzinsky, N., Cervantes, R., Claessens, C., de Viveiros, L., Fertl, M., Formaggio, J. A., Gladstone, L., Grando, M., Guigue, M., Hartse, J., Heeger, K. M., Huyan, X., Johnston, J., Jones, A. M., Kazkaz, K., LaRoque, B. H., Lindman, A., Mohiuddin, R., Monreal, B., Nikkel, J. A., Novitski, E., Oblath, N. S., Ottiger, M., Pettus, W., Robertson, R. H., Rybka, G., Saldaña, L., Schram, M., Sibille, V., Slocum, P. L., Sun, Y. -H., Surukuchi, P. T., Tedeschi, J. R., Telles, A. B., Thomas, M., Thümmler, T., Tvrznikova, L., VanDevender, B. A., Weiss, T. E., Wendler, T., Zayas, E., and Ziegler, A. Bayesian analysis of a future β decay experiment's sensitivity to neutrino mass scale and ordering. United States: N. p., 2021.
Web. doi:10.1103/physrevc.103.065501.
Ashtari Esfahani, A., Betancourt, M., Bogorad, Z., Böser, S., Buzinsky, N., Cervantes, R., Claessens, C., de Viveiros, L., Fertl, M., Formaggio, J. A., Gladstone, L., Grando, M., Guigue, M., Hartse, J., Heeger, K. M., Huyan, X., Johnston, J., Jones, A. M., Kazkaz, K., LaRoque, B. H., Lindman, A., Mohiuddin, R., Monreal, B., Nikkel, J. A., Novitski, E., Oblath, N. S., Ottiger, M., Pettus, W., Robertson, R. H., Rybka, G., Saldaña, L., Schram, M., Sibille, V., Slocum, P. L., Sun, Y. -H., Surukuchi, P. T., Tedeschi, J. R., Telles, A. B., Thomas, M., Thümmler, T., Tvrznikova, L., VanDevender, B. A., Weiss, T. E., Wendler, T., Zayas, E., & Ziegler, A. Bayesian analysis of a future β decay experiment's sensitivity to neutrino mass scale and ordering. United States. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevc.103.065501
Ashtari Esfahani, A., Betancourt, M., Bogorad, Z., Böser, S., Buzinsky, N., Cervantes, R., Claessens, C., de Viveiros, L., Fertl, M., Formaggio, J. A., Gladstone, L., Grando, M., Guigue, M., Hartse, J., Heeger, K. M., Huyan, X., Johnston, J., Jones, A. M., Kazkaz, K., LaRoque, B. H., Lindman, A., Mohiuddin, R., Monreal, B., Nikkel, J. A., Novitski, E., Oblath, N. S., Ottiger, M., Pettus, W., Robertson, R. H., Rybka, G., Saldaña, L., Schram, M., Sibille, V., Slocum, P. L., Sun, Y. -H., Surukuchi, P. T., Tedeschi, J. R., Telles, A. B., Thomas, M., Thümmler, T., Tvrznikova, L., VanDevender, B. A., Weiss, T. E., Wendler, T., Zayas, E., and Ziegler, A. Tue .
"Bayesian analysis of a future β decay experiment's sensitivity to neutrino mass scale and ordering". United States. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevc.103.065501. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1836201.
@article{osti_1836201,
title = {Bayesian analysis of a future β decay experiment's sensitivity to neutrino mass scale and ordering},
author = {Ashtari Esfahani, A. and Betancourt, M. and Bogorad, Z. and Böser, S. and Buzinsky, N. and Cervantes, R. and Claessens, C. and de Viveiros, L. and Fertl, M. and Formaggio, J. A. and Gladstone, L. and Grando, M. and Guigue, M. and Hartse, J. and Heeger, K. M. and Huyan, X. and Johnston, J. and Jones, A. M. and Kazkaz, K. and LaRoque, B. H. and Lindman, A. and Mohiuddin, R. and Monreal, B. and Nikkel, J. A. and Novitski, E. and Oblath, N. S. and Ottiger, M. and Pettus, W. and Robertson, R. H. and Rybka, G. and Saldaña, L. and Schram, M. and Sibille, V. and Slocum, P. L. and Sun, Y. -H. and Surukuchi, P. T. and Tedeschi, J. R. and Telles, A. B. and Thomas, M. and Thümmler, T. and Tvrznikova, L. and VanDevender, B. A. and Weiss, T. E. and Wendler, T. and Zayas, E. and Ziegler, A.},
abstractNote = {Bayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. We present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment’s sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the β-decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision β-decay experiment’s sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering, for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the electron-weighted neutrino mass within ~ 40meV after 1 year (90% credibility). Neutrino masses > 500meV could be measured within ≈ 5meV. Using only β-decay and external reactor neutrino data, we find that next-generation β-decay experiments could potentially constrain the mass ordering using a two-neutrino spectral model analysis. By calibrating mass ordering results, we identify reporting criteria that can be tuned to suppress false ordering claims. In some cases, a two-neutrino analysis can reveal that the mass ordering is inverted, an unobtainable result for the traditional one-neutrino analysis approach.},
doi = {10.1103/physrevc.103.065501},
journal = {Physical Review. C},
number = 6,
volume = 103,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2021},
month = {Tue Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2021}
}
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