Changes in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable-Resolution Community Atmosphere Model
Abstract
Abstract Decreasing climate models' grid spacing improves the representation of tropical cyclones at decadal time scales. In this study, a variable‐resolution (VR) version of the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5‐VR) is utilized to study North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology in ensemble historical climate simulations and under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin‐wide tropical cyclone counts decrease in the RCP simulations, although landfalling storm counts do not show as straightforward of a pattern, especially when focusing on regional changes. Lifetime maximum intensity metrics suggest that tropical cyclones increase in strength in the RCP ensembles. However, despite increases in tropical cyclone‐related precipitation rates and the amount of precipitation produced per storm with warming, the annual average Rx5day from tropical cyclones over the eastern United States decreases due to less landfalling storms. This work is part of a continued effort to quantify how tropical cyclone‐induced hazards may change in future climates.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[2]
- Stony Brook University, NY (United States)
- Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1803079
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1633391
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0016605; AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 47; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Stansfield, Alyssa M., Reed, Kevin A., and Zarzycki, Colin M. Changes in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable-Resolution Community Atmosphere Model. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1029/2019gl086930.
Stansfield, Alyssa M., Reed, Kevin A., & Zarzycki, Colin M. Changes in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable-Resolution Community Atmosphere Model. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086930
Stansfield, Alyssa M., Reed, Kevin A., and Zarzycki, Colin M. Sat .
"Changes in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable-Resolution Community Atmosphere Model". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086930. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1803079.
@article{osti_1803079,
title = {Changes in Precipitation From North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Under RCP Scenarios in the Variable-Resolution Community Atmosphere Model},
author = {Stansfield, Alyssa M. and Reed, Kevin A. and Zarzycki, Colin M.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Decreasing climate models' grid spacing improves the representation of tropical cyclones at decadal time scales. In this study, a variable‐resolution (VR) version of the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5‐VR) is utilized to study North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology in ensemble historical climate simulations and under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin‐wide tropical cyclone counts decrease in the RCP simulations, although landfalling storm counts do not show as straightforward of a pattern, especially when focusing on regional changes. Lifetime maximum intensity metrics suggest that tropical cyclones increase in strength in the RCP ensembles. However, despite increases in tropical cyclone‐related precipitation rates and the amount of precipitation produced per storm with warming, the annual average Rx5day from tropical cyclones over the eastern United States decreases due to less landfalling storms. This work is part of a continued effort to quantify how tropical cyclone‐induced hazards may change in future climates.},
doi = {10.1029/2019gl086930},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 12,
volume = 47,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat May 30 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Sat May 30 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}
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Figures / Tables:
Table 1: Annual Mean North Atlantic TC Counts [Number per Year], Annual Mean Ensemble Mean Continental United States Landfalling TC Counts Separated by NCA Region [Number per Year], Medians and 95th Percentiles of Lifetime Maximum Near-Surface Wind Speed Distributions [m/s], medians and 5th percentiles of lifetime minimum minimum sea levelmore »
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