Title: Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate

Abstract

Observations and model simulations show enhanced warming in the Arctic under increasing greenhouse gases, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA), that is likely caused by sea-ice loss. AA reduces meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation, thus mid-latitude weather and climate changes have been attributed to AA, often on the basis of regression analysis and atmospheric simulations. However, other modelling studies show only a weak link. This inconsistency may result from deficiencies in separating the effects of AA from those of natural variability or background warming. In this work, using coupled model simulations with and without AA, we show that cold-season precipitation, snowfall and circulation changes over northern mid-latitudes come mostly from background warming. AA and sea-ice loss increase precipitation and snowfall above ~60° N and reduce meridional temperature gradients above ~45° N in the lower–mid troposphere. However, minimal impact on the mean climate is seen below ~60° N, with weak reduction in zonal wind over 50°–70° N and 150–700 hPa, mainly over the North Atlantic and northern central Asia. These results suggest that the climatic impacts of AA are probably small outside the high latitudes, thus caution is needed in attributing mid-latitude changes to AA and sea-ice lossmore » on the basis of statistical analyses that cannot distinguish the impact of AA from other correlated changes.« less

Authors:

Dai, Aiguo  ^[1];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-5371-917X"

Song, Mirong ^[2]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States)
2. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)

Publication Date:

Mon Feb 10 00:00:00 EST 2020

Research Org.:

State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS); National Science Foundation (NSF); US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

OSTI Identifier:

1802431

Grant/Contract Number:  

SC0012602; XDA19070403; AGS-1353740; OISE-174738; NA15OAR4310086

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Nature Climate Change

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:

Nature Publishing Group

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; environmental sciences & ecology; meteorology & atmospheric sciences; attribution; climate-change impacts