Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050

Zhou, Nan; Khanna, Nina; Feng, Wei; Ke, Jing; Levine, Mark

doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0253-6

Title: Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050

Abstract

As China’s rapid urbanization continues and urban dwellers become more affluent, energy use in buildings is expected to grow. To understand how this growth can be slowed, here we explore four scenarios for Chinese buildings, ranging from a high-energy-demand scenario with no new energy policies to lowest energy demand under a techno-economic-potential scenario that assumes full deployment of cost-effective efficient and renewable technologies by 2050. We show that, in the high energy demand scenario, building energy demand has an average annual growth rate of about 2.8%, with slower growth rates in the other three scenarios. In all scenarios, CO₂ emissions grow slower than energy, with building CO₂ peaking around 2045 in the high energy demand scenario, and as early as 2030 in the techno-economic-potential scenario. We show that although various technological solutions, systems and practices can be very effective in minimizing building energy use, rigorous policies are needed to overcome multiple implementation barriers.

Authors:

Zhou, Nan ^[1]; Khanna, Nina ^[1];

^[1]; Ke, Jing ^[1]; Levine, Mark ^[1]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Technologies Area, Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division, China Energy Group

Publication Date:: Mon Oct 08 00:00:00 EDT 2018

Research Org.:: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

OSTI Identifier:: 1650036

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Nature Energy

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 2058-7546

Publisher:: Nature Publishing Group

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; energy efficiency; energy policy

Citation Formats


                    Zhou, Nan, Khanna, Nina, Feng, Wei, Ke, Jing, and Levine, Mark. Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
Web.  doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0253-6.

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                    Zhou, Nan, Khanna, Nina, Feng, Wei, Ke, Jing, & Levine, Mark. Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0253-6

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                    Zhou, Nan, Khanna, Nina, Feng, Wei, Ke, Jing, and Levine, Mark. Mon .  
"Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0253-6.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1650036.

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@article{osti_1650036,

  title        = {Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050},

  author       = {Zhou, Nan and Khanna, Nina and Feng, Wei and Ke, Jing and Levine, Mark},

  abstractNote = {As China’s rapid urbanization continues and urban dwellers become more affluent, energy use in buildings is expected to grow. To understand how this growth can be slowed, here we explore four scenarios for Chinese buildings, ranging from a high-energy-demand scenario with no new energy policies to lowest energy demand under a techno-economic-potential scenario that assumes full deployment of cost-effective efficient and renewable technologies by 2050. We show that, in the high energy demand scenario, building energy demand has an average annual growth rate of about 2.8%, with slower growth rates in the other three scenarios. In all scenarios, CO2 emissions grow slower than energy, with building CO2 peaking around 2045 in the high energy demand scenario, and as early as 2030 in the techno-economic-potential scenario. We show that although various technological solutions, systems and practices can be very effective in minimizing building energy use, rigorous policies are needed to overcome multiple implementation barriers.},

  doi          = {10.1038/s41560-018-0253-6},

  journal      = {Nature Energy},

  number       = 11,

  volume       = 3,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Mon Oct 08 00:00:00 EDT 2018},

  month        = {Mon Oct 08 00:00:00 EDT 2018}

}

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Title: Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050

Abstract

Citation Formats

Investigations of Nearly (net) Zero Energy Residential Buildings in Beijing journal, January 2015

Technology line and case analysis of heat metering and energy efficiency retrofit of existing residential buildings in Northern heating areas of China journal, June 2009

Ground-source heat pumps systems and applications journal, February 2008

Chillers energy consumption, energy savings and emission analysis in an institutional buildings journal, August 2011

Improving energy efficiency through the design of the building envelope journal, December 2010

Quantifying the potential impacts of China's power-sector policies on coal input and CO2 emissions through 2050: A bottom-up perspective journal, August 2016

Comparison of China’s Carbon Emission Scenarios in 2050 journal, December 2011

Analysis of energy saving using natural ventilation in a traditional Italian building journal, February 2003

Some prospects of energy savings in buildings journal, July 2001

China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model journal, February 2013

Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model journal, January 2016

A review of building energy efficiency in China during “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period journal, February 2012

Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China's building sector through 2050 journal, July 2018

Chinese urbanization 2050: SD modeling and process simulation journal, May 2017

Characteristics of residential energy consumption in China: Findings from a household survey journal, December 2014

Cooling-energy reduction in air-conditioned offices by using night ventilation journal, August 1999

Passive building energy savings: A review of building envelope components journal, October 2011

Building commissioning: a golden opportunity for reducing energy costs and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States journal, February 2011

China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment journal, October 2012

Dynamic operation of daylighting and shading systems: A literature review journal, July 2016

How to use natural ventilation to cool narrow office buildings journal, October 2004

Statistical analyses on summer energy consumption characteristics of residential buildings in some cities of China journal, January 2010

A review of biomass burning: Emissions and impacts on air quality, health and climate in China journal, February 2017

A review of heat pump water heating systems journal, August 2009

Parametric design and daylighting: A literature review journal, June 2017

Understanding China's non-fossil energy targets journal, November 2015

CO 2 emissions in China's building sector through 2050: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model journal, June 2017

Analysis of rural residential energy consumption and corresponding carbon emissions in China journal, February 2012

Contribution of natural ventilation in a double skin envelope to heating load reduction in winter journal, November 2009

Reducing energy use in the buildings sector: measures, costs, and examples journal, February 2009

Energy saving potential of natural ventilation in China: The impact of ambient air pollution journal, October 2016

Thermal comfort in naturally ventilated buildings in hot-humid area of China journal, November 2010

An analysis of China's climate policy using the China-in-Global Energy Model journal, January 2016

Construction Industrialization in China: Current Profile and the Prediction journal, February 2017

Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China journal, July 2016

Large-scale evaluation of cascaded adsorption heat pumps based on metal/covalent–organic frameworks journal, January 2019

Title: Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050

Investigations of Nearly (net) Zero Energy Residential Buildings in Beijing
journal, January 2015

Technology line and case analysis of heat metering and energy efficiency retrofit of existing residential buildings in Northern heating areas of China
journal, June 2009

Ground-source heat pumps systems and applications
journal, February 2008

Chillers energy consumption, energy savings and emission analysis in an institutional buildings
journal, August 2011

Improving energy efficiency through the design of the building envelope
journal, December 2010

Quantifying the potential impacts of China's power-sector policies on coal input and CO2 emissions through 2050: A bottom-up perspective
journal, August 2016

Comparison of China’s Carbon Emission Scenarios in 2050
journal, December 2011

Analysis of energy saving using natural ventilation in a traditional Italian building
journal, February 2003

Some prospects of energy savings in buildings
journal, July 2001

China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model
journal, February 2013

Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model
journal, January 2016

A review of building energy efficiency in China during “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period
journal, February 2012

Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China's building sector through 2050
journal, July 2018

Chinese urbanization 2050: SD modeling and process simulation
journal, May 2017

Characteristics of residential energy consumption in China: Findings from a household survey
journal, December 2014

Cooling-energy reduction in air-conditioned offices by using night ventilation
journal, August 1999

Passive building energy savings: A review of building envelope components
journal, October 2011

Building commissioning: a golden opportunity for reducing energy costs and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States
journal, February 2011

China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment
journal, October 2012

Dynamic operation of daylighting and shading systems: A literature review
journal, July 2016

How to use natural ventilation to cool narrow office buildings
journal, October 2004

Statistical analyses on summer energy consumption characteristics of residential buildings in some cities of China
journal, January 2010

A review of biomass burning: Emissions and impacts on air quality, health and climate in China
journal, February 2017

A review of heat pump water heating systems
journal, August 2009

Parametric design and daylighting: A literature review
journal, June 2017

Understanding China's non-fossil energy targets
journal, November 2015

CO 2 emissions in China's building sector through 2050: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model
journal, June 2017

Analysis of rural residential energy consumption and corresponding carbon emissions in China
journal, February 2012

Contribution of natural ventilation in a double skin envelope to heating load reduction in winter
journal, November 2009

Reducing energy use in the buildings sector: measures, costs, and examples
journal, February 2009

Energy saving potential of natural ventilation in China: The impact of ambient air pollution
journal, October 2016

Thermal comfort in naturally ventilated buildings in hot-humid area of China
journal, November 2010

An analysis of China's climate policy using the China-in-Global Energy Model
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Construction Industrialization in China: Current Profile and the Prediction
journal, February 2017

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journal, July 2016

Large-scale evaluation of cascaded adsorption heat pumps based on metal/covalent–organic frameworks
journal, January 2019