Why Does Amazon Precipitation Decrease When Tropical Forests Respond to Increasing CO2 ?
Abstract
Earth system models predict a zonal dipole of precipitation change over tropical South America, with decreases over the Amazon and increases over the Andes. Much of this has been attributed to the physiological response of the rainforest to elevated CO2, which describes a basin-wide reduction in stomatal conductance and transpiration. While robust in Earth system model experiments, details of the underlying atmospheric mechanism—specifically how it evolves in the context of land-atmosphere interaction and the diurnal cycle—are unresolved. We investigate this using idealized model simulations and find that within 24 hr of a CO2 increase, changes occur over the Amazon that engender synoptic timescale feedbacks. Decreased evapotranspiration from the rainforest throttles near-surface moisture, inducing a drier, warmer, and deeper boundary layer. Above this, enhanced turbulent diffusivity increases vapor in the lower free troposphere. Together, these processes reduce convective activity and cause immediate decreases in Amazon rainfall. Over the synoptic timescale, these changes leave behind lower tropospheric moisture, which is advected westward by the background jet and increases Andean precipitation. This produces a dipole of precipitation change consistent across global and regional models as well as parameterized and resolved convection, though details are sensitive to model topography and boundary layer formulation. The mechanismmore »
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
- Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1611738
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012152; SC0019459
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Citation Formats
Langenbrunner, B., Pritchard, M. S., Kooperman, G. J., and Randerson, J. T. Why Does Amazon Precipitation Decrease When Tropical Forests Respond to Increasing CO2 ?. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018ef001026.
Langenbrunner, B., Pritchard, M. S., Kooperman, G. J., & Randerson, J. T. Why Does Amazon Precipitation Decrease When Tropical Forests Respond to Increasing CO2 ?. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ef001026
Langenbrunner, B., Pritchard, M. S., Kooperman, G. J., and Randerson, J. T. Fri .
"Why Does Amazon Precipitation Decrease When Tropical Forests Respond to Increasing CO2 ?". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ef001026. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1611738.
@article{osti_1611738,
title = {Why Does Amazon Precipitation Decrease When Tropical Forests Respond to Increasing CO2 ?},
author = {Langenbrunner, B. and Pritchard, M. S. and Kooperman, G. J. and Randerson, J. T.},
abstractNote = {Earth system models predict a zonal dipole of precipitation change over tropical South America, with decreases over the Amazon and increases over the Andes. Much of this has been attributed to the physiological response of the rainforest to elevated CO2, which describes a basin-wide reduction in stomatal conductance and transpiration. While robust in Earth system model experiments, details of the underlying atmospheric mechanism—specifically how it evolves in the context of land-atmosphere interaction and the diurnal cycle—are unresolved. We investigate this using idealized model simulations and find that within 24 hr of a CO2 increase, changes occur over the Amazon that engender synoptic timescale feedbacks. Decreased evapotranspiration from the rainforest throttles near-surface moisture, inducing a drier, warmer, and deeper boundary layer. Above this, enhanced turbulent diffusivity increases vapor in the lower free troposphere. Together, these processes reduce convective activity and cause immediate decreases in Amazon rainfall. Over the synoptic timescale, these changes leave behind lower tropospheric moisture, which is advected westward by the background jet and increases Andean precipitation. This produces a dipole of precipitation change consistent across global and regional models as well as parameterized and resolved convection, though details are sensitive to model topography and boundary layer formulation. The mechanism reported here stresses the importance of fast timescale processes affecting stability over a period of hours that can influence longer-term vegetation-climate interactions. These results help clarify the Amazon's physiological response to rising CO2 and provide insight into possible causes of historical model biases and end-of-century uncertainty in this region.},
doi = {10.1029/2018ef001026},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 4,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Mar 15 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Fri Mar 15 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Predictions of Turbulent Flow Parameters in a Dry Convective Boundary Layer
journal, December 2011
- Gibbs, Jeremy A.; Fedorovich, Evgeni; van Eijk, Alexander M. J.
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 50, Issue 12
A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an Explicit Treatment of Entrainment Processes
journal, September 2006
- Hong, Song-You; Noh, Yign; Dudhia, Jimy
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, Issue 9
Hydrological changes in the climate system from leaf responses to increasing CO2
journal, April 2013
- Pu, Bing; Dickinson, Robert E.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 42, Issue 7-8
True Colors of Oceanography: Guidelines for Effective and Accurate Colormap Selection
journal, September 2016
- Thyng, Kristen; Greene, Chad; Hetland, Robert
- Oceanography, Vol. 29, Issue 3
Future Drying in Central America and Northern South America Linked With Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
journal, September 2018
- Chen, Y.; Langenbrunner, B.; Randerson, J. T.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 17
The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming
journal, May 2004
- Betts, R. A.; Cox, P. M.; Collins, M.
- Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 78, Issue 1-3
Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability Over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years
journal, October 2009
- Tripati, A. K.; Roberts, C. D.; Eagle, R. A.
- Science, Vol. 326, Issue 5958
Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Niño teleconnections: TROPICAL DROUGHT IN GLOBAL WARMING AND ENSO
journal, December 2003
- Neelin, J. D.; Chou, C.; Su, H.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, Issue 24
The influence of the land surface on the transition from dry to wet season in Amazonia
journal, April 2004
- Fu, R.; Li, W.
- Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 78, Issue 1-3
The Step-Mountain Eta Coordinate Model: Further Developments of the Convection, Viscous Sublayer, and Turbulence Closure Schemes
journal, May 1994
- Janjić, Zaviša I.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 122, Issue 5
Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests
journal, September 2012
- Spracklen, D. V.; Arnold, S. R.; Taylor, C. M.
- Nature, Vol. 489, Issue 7415
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
Amplification of heat extremes by plant CO2 physiological forcing
journal, March 2018
- Skinner, Christopher B.; Poulsen, Christopher J.; Mankin, Justin S.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Rainforest-initiated wet season onset over the southern Amazon
journal, July 2017
- Wright, Jonathon S.; Fu, Rong; Worden, John R.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 32
Dynamics of patchy stomatal movements, and their contribution to steady-state and oscillating stomatal conductance calculated using gas-exchange techniques
journal, September 1994
- Cardon, Z. G.; Mott, K. A.; Berry, J. A.
- Plant, Cell and Environment, Vol. 17, Issue 9
Precipitation recycling in the Amazon basin
journal, July 1994
- Eltahir, E. A. B.; Bras, R. L.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 120, Issue 518
A Review of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes and Their Sensitivity in Simulating Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments
journal, June 2015
- Cohen, Ariel E.; Cavallo, Steven M.; Coniglio, Michael C.
- Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 30, Issue 3
How well can CMIP5 simulate precipitation and its controlling processes over tropical South America?
journal, November 2012
- Yin, Lei; Fu, Rong; Shevliakova, Elena
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 11-12
Competing Influences of Anthropogenic Warming, ENSO, and Plant Physiology on Future Terrestrial Aridity
journal, September 2017
- Bonfils, Céline; Anderson, Gemma; Santer, Benjamin D.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 17
Amazon rainforests green-up with sunlight in dry season
journal, January 2006
- Huete, Alfredo R.; Didan, Kamel; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 6
Cloudiness over the Amazon rainforest: Meteorology and thermodynamics
journal, July 2016
- Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Miller, Mark A.; Trabachino, Lynne C.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, Issue 13, p. 7990-8005
A Combined Local and Nonlocal Closure Model for the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. Part I: Model Description and Testing
journal, September 2007
- Pleim, Jonathan E.
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 46, Issue 9
Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection
journal, October 2013
- Fu, R.; Yin, L.; Li, W.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, Issue 45
Verification of Convection-Allowing WRF Model Forecasts of the Planetary Boundary Layer Using Sounding Observations
journal, June 2013
- Coniglio, Michael C.; Correia, James; Marsh, Patrick T.
- Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 28, Issue 3
Past, present and future vegetation-cloud feedbacks in the Amazon Basin
journal, February 2009
- Pinto, E.; Shin, Y.; Cowling, S. A.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 32, Issue 6
The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins
journal, January 2011
- Yang, Zong-Liang; Niu, Guo-Yue; Mitchell, Kenneth E.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D12
On the Controls of Daytime Precipitation in the Amazonian Dry Season
journal, December 2016
- Ghate, Virendra P.; Kollias, Pavlos
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 17, Issue 12
Asymmetric impact of the physiological effect of carbon dioxide on hydrological responses to instantaneous negative and positive CO2 forcing
journal, January 2015
- Abe, Manabu; Shiogama, Hideo; Yokohata, Tokuta
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 45, Issue 7-8
Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” Mechanism in Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming
journal, April 2009
- Chou, Chia; Neelin, J. David; Chen, Chao-An
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 8
Impact of a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme on Warm Season Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts
journal, May 2016
- Duda, Jeffrey D.; Wang, Xuguang; Kong, Fanyou
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 144, Issue 5
The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements
journal, January 2011
- Niu, Guo-Yue; Yang, Zong-Liang; Mitchell, Kenneth E.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D12
A New Moist Turbulence Parameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model
journal, June 2009
- Bretherton, Christopher S.; Park, Sungsu
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 12
Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4
journal, January 2006
- Li, Wenhong; Fu, Rong; Dickinson, Robert E.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue D2
Development of an Improved Turbulence Closure Model for the Atmospheric Boundary Layer
journal, January 2009
- Nakanishi, Mikio; Niino, Hiroshi
- Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 87, Issue 5
The Role of Plant CO 2 Physiological Forcing in Shaping Future Daily-Scale Precipitation
journal, April 2017
- Skinner, Christopher B.; Poulsen, Christopher J.; Chadwick, Robin
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 7
A Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in Large-Scale Models
journal, August 1989
- Tiedtke, M.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 117, Issue 8
Moisture Vertical Structure, Column Water Vapor, and Tropical Deep Convection
journal, June 2009
- Holloway, Christopher E.; Neelin, J. David
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 66, Issue 6
Plant responses to increasing CO 2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity
journal, August 2016
- Swann, Abigail L. S.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 36
Mechanisms of Global Warming Impacts on Regional Tropical Precipitation*
journal, July 2004
- Chou, Chia; Neelin, J. David
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 13
The Amazon basin in transition
journal, January 2012
- Davidson, Eric A.; de Araújo, Alessandro C.; Artaxo, Paulo
- Nature, Vol. 481, Issue 7381
Comparison of Radiative and Physiological Effects of Doubled Atmospheric CO2 on Climate
journal, March 1996
- Sellers, P. J.; Bounoua, L.; Collatz, G. J.
- Science, Vol. 271, Issue 5254
Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon
journal, May 2018
- Staal, Arie; Tuinenburg, Obbe A.; Bosmans, Joyce H. C.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 6
The Weak Temperature Gradient Approximation and Balanced Tropical Moisture Waves*
journal, December 2001
- Sobel, Adam H.; Nilsson, Johan; Polvani, Lorenzo M.
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 58, Issue 23
Root functioning modifies seasonal climate
journal, November 2005
- Lee, J. -E.; Oliveira, R. S.; Dawson, T. E.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 102, Issue 49
Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models
journal, January 2008
- Iacono, Michael J.; Delamere, Jennifer S.; Mlawer, Eli J.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D13
Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm
journal, September 2016
- Nobre, Carlos A.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Borma, Laura S.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 39
Dry-season greening of Amazon forests
journal, March 2016
- Saleska, Scott R.; Wu, Jin; Guan, Kaiyu
- Nature, Vol. 531, Issue 7594
Primary Production of the Biosphere: Integrating Terrestrial and Oceanic Components
journal, July 1998
- Field, C. B.
- Science, Vol. 281, Issue 5374
A prototype for convective margin shifts: CONVECTIVE MARGIN PROTOTYPE
journal, March 2007
- Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 5
Evaluating the strength of the land–atmosphere moisture feedback in Earth system models using satellite observations
journal, January 2016
- Levine, Paul A.; Randerson, James T.; Swenson, Sean C.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 20, Issue 12
Evaluation of nonlocal and local planetary boundary layer schemes in the WRF model: EVALUATION OF PBL SCHEMES IN WRF
journal, June 2012
- Xie, Bo; Fung, Jimmy C. H.; Chan, Allen
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D12
A Global Intercomparison of Modeled and Observed Land–Atmosphere Coupling
journal, June 2012
- Ferguson, Craig R.; Wood, Eric F.; Vinukollu, Raghuveer K.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 13, Issue 3
The simulation of the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation over land in a global model
journal, October 2004
- Bechtold, P.; Chaboureau, J. -P.; Beljaars, A.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 130, Issue 604
Improved Representation of Boundary Layer Clouds over the Southeast Pacific in ARW-WRF Using a Modified Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme *
journal, November 2011
- Zhang, Chunxi; Wang, Yuqing; Hamilton, Kevin
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 139, Issue 11
Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land
journal, April 2018
- Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5
Global State of Biodiversity and Loss
journal, November 2003
- Dirzo, Rodolfo; Raven, Peter H.
- Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 28, Issue 1
On the importance of cascading moisture recycling in South America
journal, January 2014
- Zemp, D. C.; Schleussner, C. -F.; Barbosa, H. M. J.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 14, Issue 23
Stomatal responses to increased CO2: implications from the plant to the global scale
journal, October 1995
- Field, C. B.; Jackson, R. B.; Mooney, H. A.
- Plant, Cell and Environment, Vol. 18, Issue 10
Elevated CO2 as a driver of global dryland greening
journal, February 2016
- Lu, Xuefei; Wang, Lixin; McCabe, Matthew F.
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, Issue 1
High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations
journal, December 2009
- Pagani, Mark; Liu, Zhonghui; LaRiviere, Jonathan
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Representing Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Convection in Large-Scale Models
journal, February 2014
- Bechtold, Peter; Semane, Noureddine; Lopez, Philippe
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 71, Issue 2
Relationships among climatological vertical moisture structure, column water vapor, and precipitation over the central Amazon in observations and CMIP5 models: Vertical Moisture Profiles in CMIP5
journal, February 2017
- Lintner, Benjamin R.; Adams, David K.; Schiro, Kathleen A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 4
An Improved Mellor–Yamada Level-3 Model: Its Numerical Stability and Application to a Regional Prediction of Advection Fog
journal, March 2006
- Nakanishi, Mikio; Niino, Hiroshi
- Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Vol. 119, Issue 2
The Effects of Tropical Vegetation on Rainfall
journal, October 2018
- Spracklen, D. V.; Baker, J. C. A.; Garcia-Carreras, L.
- Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 43, Issue 1
Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents: ORIGIN AND FATE OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
journal, September 2010
- van der Ent, Rudi J.; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Schaefli, Bettina
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 46, Issue 9
Present-day and future Amazonian precipitation in global climate models: CMIP5 versus CMIP3
journal, January 2013
- Joetzjer, E.; Douville, H.; Delire, C.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 11-12
Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying
journal, March 2018
- Richardson, T. B.; Forster, P. M.; Andrews, T.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 6
Soil Moisture Impacts on Convective Margins
journal, August 2009
- Lintner, Benjamin R.; Neelin, J. David
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 10, Issue 4
xarray: N-D labeled Arrays and Datasets in Python
journal, April 2017
- Hoyer, Stephan; Hamman, Joseph J.
- Journal of Open Research Software, Vol. 5
The South American Low-Level Jet Experiment
journal, January 2006
- Vera, C.; Baez, J.; Douglas, M.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 87, Issue 1
NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000
journal, July 2002
- Kanamitsu, Masao; Kumar, Arun; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, Issue 7
Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales
journal, July 2008
- Bechtold, Peter; Köhler, Martin; Jung, Thomas
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 134, Issue 634
Critical impact of vegetation physiology on the continental hydrologic cycle in response to increasing CO 2
journal, April 2018
- Lemordant, Léo; Gentine, Pierre; Swann, Abigail S.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 16
Estimation of Continental Precipitation Recycling
journal, June 1993
- Brubaker, Kaye L.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, P. S.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 6, Issue 6
Tropical South America–Atlantic Sector Convective Margins and Their Relationship to Low-Level Inflow
journal, May 2010
- Lintner, Benjamin R.; Neelin, J. David
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 10
The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present)
journal, December 2003
- Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 4, Issue 6
The Weak Temperature Gradient Approximation and Balanced Tropical Moisture Waves
text, January 2001
- Sobel, Adam H.; Nilsson, Johan; Polvani, Lorenzo M.
- Columbia University
Addressing indirect frequency coupling via partial generalized coherence
journal, March 2021
- Young, Joseph; Homma, Ryota; Aazhang, Behnaam
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 11, Issue 1
Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: from synoptic to decadal time-scales
text, January 2008
- Bechtold, Peter; Köhler, M.; Jung, T.
- ECMWF
Critical impact of vegetation physiology on the continental hydrologic cycle in response to increasing CO2
text, January 2018
- Lemordant, Léo; Gentine, Pierre; Swann, Abigail S.
- Columbia University
On the importance of cascading moisture recycling in South America
other, January 2014
- Zemp, D. C.; Schleussner, C. -F.; Barbosa, H. M. J.
- München : European Geopyhsical Union
Works referencing / citing this record:
The effect of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on global streamflow
journal, October 2019
- Fowler, Megan D.; Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Randerson, James T.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 11