Assessing changes in US regional precipitation on multiple time scales
Abstract
We estimate trends in US regional precipitation on multiple time spans and scales relevant to the detection of changes in climatic regimes. A large literature has shown that trend estimation in hydrological series may be affected by long-term persistence (LTP) and selection of sample length. We show that 2000-year proxy-based reconstructions of the Palmer Modified Drought Index for the US Southeast (SE) and Pacific Coast (PC) regions exhibit LTP and reveal post- 1900 changes to be within the range of longer-term natural fluctuations. We also use a new data base of daily precipitation records for 20 locations (10 PC and 10 SE) extending back in many cases to the 1870s. Over the 1901–2017 interval upward trends in some measures of average and extreme precipitation appear, but they are not consistently significant and in the full records back to 1872 they largely disappear. Furthermore, they also disappear or reverse in the post-1978 portion of the data set, which is inconsistent with them being responses to enhanced greenhouse gas forcing. We conclude that natural variability is likely the dominant driver of historical changes in precipitation and hence drought dynamics in the US SE and PC.
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1594086
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0019296
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Hydrology
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 578; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0022-1694
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; US Regional Precipitation; extreme events; long term persistence
Citation Formats
McKitrick, Ross, and Christy, John. Assessing changes in US regional precipitation on multiple time scales. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124074.
McKitrick, Ross, & Christy, John. Assessing changes in US regional precipitation on multiple time scales. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124074
McKitrick, Ross, and Christy, John. Thu .
"Assessing changes in US regional precipitation on multiple time scales". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124074. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1594086.
@article{osti_1594086,
title = {Assessing changes in US regional precipitation on multiple time scales},
author = {McKitrick, Ross and Christy, John},
abstractNote = {We estimate trends in US regional precipitation on multiple time spans and scales relevant to the detection of changes in climatic regimes. A large literature has shown that trend estimation in hydrological series may be affected by long-term persistence (LTP) and selection of sample length. We show that 2000-year proxy-based reconstructions of the Palmer Modified Drought Index for the US Southeast (SE) and Pacific Coast (PC) regions exhibit LTP and reveal post- 1900 changes to be within the range of longer-term natural fluctuations. We also use a new data base of daily precipitation records for 20 locations (10 PC and 10 SE) extending back in many cases to the 1870s. Over the 1901–2017 interval upward trends in some measures of average and extreme precipitation appear, but they are not consistently significant and in the full records back to 1872 they largely disappear. Furthermore, they also disappear or reverse in the post-1978 portion of the data set, which is inconsistent with them being responses to enhanced greenhouse gas forcing. We conclude that natural variability is likely the dominant driver of historical changes in precipitation and hence drought dynamics in the US SE and PC.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124074},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
number = C,
volume = 578,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Aug 29 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Thu Aug 29 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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