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Title: A Cost of Tractability? Estimating Climate Change Impacts Using a Single Crop Market Understates Impacts on Market Conditions and Variability

Abstract

Scientists estimate that U.S. Corn Belt crop yields will increase or decrease, on average, and become more variable with climate change. Corn and soybean farming dominates this region, but studies typically do not assess the joint impact of new distributions of corn and soybean yields on markets. We use a structural economic model with projections of climate-driven yield changes to simulate these effects. Our findings suggest that a narrow focus on a single crop in this key growing region risks underestimating the impact on price distributions and average crop receipts, and can lead to incorrect signs on estimated impacts.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [2];  [4]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO (United States). Agricultural and Applied Economics Dept.
  2. Univ. of California, Merced, CA (United States). Sierra Nevada Research Institute
  3. Univ. of California, Merced, CA (United States). Sierra Nevada Research Institute; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Div.
  4. Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); USDA
OSTI Identifier:
1567070
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 39; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2040-5790
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change adaptation; NARCCAP; Corn Belt yields; statistical yield model

Citation Formats

Thompson, Wyatt, Gerlt, Scott, Campbell, J. Elliott, Kueppers, Lara M., Lu, Yaqiong, and Snyder, Mark A. A Cost of Tractability? Estimating Climate Change Impacts Using a Single Crop Market Understates Impacts on Market Conditions and Variability. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1093/aepp/ppw023.
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Thompson, Wyatt, Gerlt, Scott, Campbell, J. Elliott, Kueppers, Lara M., Lu, Yaqiong, & Snyder, Mark A. A Cost of Tractability? Estimating Climate Change Impacts Using a Single Crop Market Understates Impacts on Market Conditions and Variability. United States. https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppw023
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Thompson, Wyatt, Gerlt, Scott, Campbell, J. Elliott, Kueppers, Lara M., Lu, Yaqiong, and Snyder, Mark A. Wed . "A Cost of Tractability? Estimating Climate Change Impacts Using a Single Crop Market Understates Impacts on Market Conditions and Variability". United States. https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppw023. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1567070.
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@article{osti_1567070,
title = {A Cost of Tractability? Estimating Climate Change Impacts Using a Single Crop Market Understates Impacts on Market Conditions and Variability},
author = {Thompson, Wyatt and Gerlt, Scott and Campbell, J. Elliott and Kueppers, Lara M. and Lu, Yaqiong and Snyder, Mark A.},
abstractNote = {Scientists estimate that U.S. Corn Belt crop yields will increase or decrease, on average, and become more variable with climate change. Corn and soybean farming dominates this region, but studies typically do not assess the joint impact of new distributions of corn and soybean yields on markets. We use a structural economic model with projections of climate-driven yield changes to simulate these effects. Our findings suggest that a narrow focus on a single crop in this key growing region risks underestimating the impact on price distributions and average crop receipts, and can lead to incorrect signs on estimated impacts.},
doi = {10.1093/aepp/ppw023},
journal = {Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy},
number = 2,
volume = 39,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Nov 02 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Wed Nov 02 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
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Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppw023
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Cited by: 5 works
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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: 2016 Iowa Corn Yield PDF
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Works referenced in this record:

Adaptation of Agricultural and Food Systems to Climate Change: An Economic and Policy Perspective
journal, September 2010

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In this issue
journal, June 2012

Copula-Based Models of Systemic Risk in U.S. Agriculture: Implications for Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Contracts
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A Microeconometric Analysis of Adapting Portfolios to Climate Change: Adoption of Agricultural Systems in Latin America
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journal, July 2013

How does petroleum price and corn yield volatility affect ethanol markets with and without an ethanol use mandate?
journal, February 2009

The New Markets for Renewable Identification Numbers
journal, January 2010

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journal, October 2014

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journal, May 2010

Impact of copula choice on the modeling of crop yield basis risk
journal, November 2011

The Economics of Grain Price Volatility
journal, March 2011

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  • Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Vol. 33, Issue 1
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Incorporating Sub‐National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land‐Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation
    journal, January 2019

    • Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; Dumortier, Jerome
    • Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Vol. 42, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1093/aepp/ppy033
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      Figures / Tables found in this record:

      Figure 1 (p. 7)figure
      Table 1 (p. 10)table
      Figure 2 (p. 11)figure
      Figure 3 (p. 12)figure
      Figure 4 (p. 13)figure
      Figure 5 (p. 14)figure
      Table 2 (p. 15)table
      Table 3 (p. 15)table
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        Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.

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