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Title: Reconstruction of Central European daily weather types back to 1763

Abstract

Weather type classifications (WTCs) are a simple tool to analyse variations in weather patterns. Long series of WTCs could be used to address decadal changes in weather as a basis for studying changes in variability or extremes or for addressing contributions of sea-surface temperature or external forcings using climate models. However, there is no long series of daily objective weather types (WTs). A new method (Shortest Mahalanobis Distance, SMD) using daily European weather data is developed to reconstruct WTCs back in time. Here the SMD method is applied on the Cluster Analysis of Principal Components (CAP9) classification used by MeteoSwiss. The CAP9 daily WT time series (computed with ERA-40) is used as reference over the 1958–1998 period. Daily data (temperature, mean sea level pressure and pressure tendency) from 13 European stations covering the period 1763–2009 are used for the reconstruction. The reference CAP9 is reduced from nine to seven types so the new daily WTC is called CAP7. As an assessment, CAP7 is compared to the original classification CAP9 and to the same WTs computed with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR and 20CRv2c). Over the reference period up to 90% of all the daily WTs can be correctly reproduced inmore » the new WTC compared to the original series, with higher reliability in winter than in summer. In addition, the reliability of the classification is increasing from 1763 onward. The annual occurrence of each type reveals some trends, mostly a decrease in the number of cyclonic days and an increase of cyclonic days.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [1]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Univ. of Bern, Bern (Switzerland). Inst. of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
  2. Univ. of Grenoble-Alpes, Grenoble (France). Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
OSTI Identifier:
1565540
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
International Journal of Climatology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 37; Journal Issue: supplement S1; Journal ID: ISSN 0899-8418
Publisher:
Royal Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; weather types; synoptic climatology; reconstruction; instrumental data; Europe; atmospheric circulation

Citation Formats

Schwander, Mikhaël, Brönnimann, Stefan, Delaygue, Gilles, Rohrer, Marco, Auchmann, Renate, and Brugnara, Yuri. Reconstruction of Central European daily weather types back to 1763. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/joc.4974.
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Schwander, Mikhaël, Brönnimann, Stefan, Delaygue, Gilles, Rohrer, Marco, Auchmann, Renate, & Brugnara, Yuri. Reconstruction of Central European daily weather types back to 1763. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4974
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Schwander, Mikhaël, Brönnimann, Stefan, Delaygue, Gilles, Rohrer, Marco, Auchmann, Renate, and Brugnara, Yuri. Tue . "Reconstruction of Central European daily weather types back to 1763". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4974. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565540.
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@article{osti_1565540,
title = {Reconstruction of Central European daily weather types back to 1763},
author = {Schwander, Mikhaël and Brönnimann, Stefan and Delaygue, Gilles and Rohrer, Marco and Auchmann, Renate and Brugnara, Yuri},
abstractNote = {Weather type classifications (WTCs) are a simple tool to analyse variations in weather patterns. Long series of WTCs could be used to address decadal changes in weather as a basis for studying changes in variability or extremes or for addressing contributions of sea-surface temperature or external forcings using climate models. However, there is no long series of daily objective weather types (WTs). A new method (Shortest Mahalanobis Distance, SMD) using daily European weather data is developed to reconstruct WTCs back in time. Here the SMD method is applied on the Cluster Analysis of Principal Components (CAP9) classification used by MeteoSwiss. The CAP9 daily WT time series (computed with ERA-40) is used as reference over the 1958–1998 period. Daily data (temperature, mean sea level pressure and pressure tendency) from 13 European stations covering the period 1763–2009 are used for the reconstruction. The reference CAP9 is reduced from nine to seven types so the new daily WTC is called CAP7. As an assessment, CAP7 is compared to the original classification CAP9 and to the same WTs computed with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR and 20CRv2c). Over the reference period up to 90% of all the daily WTs can be correctly reproduced in the new WTC compared to the original series, with higher reliability in winter than in summer. In addition, the reliability of the classification is increasing from 1763 onward. The annual occurrence of each type reveals some trends, mostly a decrease in the number of cyclonic days and an increase of cyclonic days.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4974},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
number = supplement S1,
volume = 37,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jan 31 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Tue Jan 31 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
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    Reconstruction and simulation of an extreme flood event in the Lago Maggiore catchment in 1868
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    • Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 05/22/2018
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