Valuing variable renewable energy for peak demand requirements

Zhou, Shengru; Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany A.

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.009

Title: Valuing variable renewable energy for peak demand requirements

Abstract

The capacity credit for a generator is the fraction of its nameplate capacity that can contribute to meeting the system's resource adequacy. However, estimating the capacity credit of variable renewable energy is challenging due to the variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity of the renewable resources. This study uses the Regional Energy Deployment System to quantify the impacts on the U.S. power sector through 2050 from misestimations of renewable capacity credit. Results show that small underestimates of the renewable capacity credit have little impact on system buildout, but that large underestimates (>50%) can reduce solar photovoltaic deployment by nearly 100 GW (50%) and wind by up to 43 GW (22.8%) in 2030s. Such large differences are possible because the capacity credit for variable renewable energy can substantially impact the overall costs and value of variable renewable energy relative to other technologies. Such effects are most strongly felt in the mid-term but are less relevant over the long-term due to the declining value of variable resources. Underestimating the capacity credit of variable renewable energy leads to increased system costs and emissions. Conversely, overvaluing the capacity credit of variable renewable energy reduces system costs at the risk of lower reliability.

Authors:

Zhou, Shengru ^[1]; Cole, Wesley J. ^[1]; Frew, Bethany A. ^[1]

National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Publication Date:: Mon Sep 24 00:00:00 EDT 2018

Research Org.:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: Children's Investment Fund Foundation; USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1479875

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-6A20-70624
Journal ID: ISSN 0360-5442; MainId:20120;UUID:a4f818bc-e4d9-e711-9c11-2c44fd93e385;MainAdminID:8596

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Energy (Oxford)

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Energy (Oxford); Journal Volume: 165; Journal Issue: PA; Journal ID: ISSN 0360-5442

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; wind; solar; renewable energy; capacity value; capacity credit; resource adequacy

Citation Formats


                    Zhou, Shengru, Cole, Wesley J., and Frew, Bethany A. Valuing variable renewable energy for peak demand requirements.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
Web.  doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.009.

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                    Zhou, Shengru, Cole, Wesley J., & Frew, Bethany A. Valuing variable renewable energy for peak demand requirements.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.009

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                    Zhou, Shengru, Cole, Wesley J., and Frew, Bethany A. Mon .  
"Valuing variable renewable energy for peak demand requirements".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.009.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1479875.

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@article{osti_1479875,

  title        = {Valuing variable renewable energy for peak demand requirements},

  author       = {Zhou, Shengru and Cole, Wesley J. and Frew, Bethany A.},

  abstractNote = {The capacity credit for a generator is the fraction of its nameplate capacity that can contribute to meeting the system's resource adequacy. However, estimating the capacity credit of variable renewable energy is challenging due to the variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity of the renewable resources. This study uses the Regional Energy Deployment System to quantify the impacts on the U.S. power sector through 2050 from misestimations of renewable capacity credit. Results show that small underestimates of the renewable capacity credit have little impact on system buildout, but that large underestimates (>50%) can reduce solar photovoltaic deployment by nearly 100 GW (50%) and wind by up to 43 GW (22.8%) in 2030s. Such large differences are possible because the capacity credit for variable renewable energy can substantially impact the overall costs and value of variable renewable energy relative to other technologies. Such effects are most strongly felt in the mid-term but are less relevant over the long-term due to the declining value of variable resources. Underestimating the capacity credit of variable renewable energy leads to increased system costs and emissions. Conversely, overvaluing the capacity credit of variable renewable energy reduces system costs at the risk of lower reliability.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.009},

  journal      = {Energy (Oxford)},

  number       = PA,

  volume       = 165,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Mon Sep 24 00:00:00 EDT 2018},

  month        = {Mon Sep 24 00:00:00 EDT 2018}

}

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Inter-annual variability of wind and solar electricity generation and capacity values in Texas
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Similar Records

Title: Valuing variable renewable energy for peak demand requirements

Abstract

Citation Formats

Z-Method for Power System Resource Adequacy Applications journal, May 2006

Should we build wind farms close to load or invest in transmission to access better wind resources in remote areas? A case study in the MISO region journal, September 2016

Endogenous Assessment of the Capacity Value of Solar PV in Generation Investment Planning Studies journal, October 2015

The Capacity Value of Wind in the United States: Methods and Implementation journal, March 2006

Effective Load Carrying Capability of Generating Units journal, August 1966

Capacity Value of Wind Power journal, May 2011

Estimating the Capacity Value of Concentrating Solar Power Plants With Thermal Energy Storage: A Case Study of the Southwestern United States journal, May 2013

Comparison of Capacity Credit Calculation Methods for Conventional Power Plants and Wind Power journal, May 2009

Capacity value estimation of a load-shifting resource using a coupled building and power system model journal, April 2017

Assessing transfer capability requirement for wind power generation using a combined deterministic and probabilistic approach conference, July 2009

Probing the Intermittent Energy Resource Contributions From Generation Adequacy and Security Perspectives journal, November 2012

Noniterative Method to Approximate the Effective Load Carrying Capability of a Wind Plant journal, June 2008

Comparing Capacity Value Estimation Techniques for Photovoltaic Solar Power journal, January 2013

Modelling utility-scale wind power plants. Part 2: Capacity credit journal, October 2000

Inter-annual variability of wind indices across Europe journal, January 2006

Capacity Value of Wind Power, Calculation, and Data Requirements: the Irish Power System Case journal, February 2011

Wind generation output during cold weather-driven electricity demand peaks in Ireland journal, March 2012

Factors influencing calculation of capacity value of wind power: A case study of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) journal, May 2016

Data Challenges in Estimating the Capacity Value of Solar Photovoltaics journal, July 2017

Capacity value assessments of wind power journal, June 2016

Wind capacity credit: Accounting for years of extreme risk conference, June 2011

Reconsidering the capacity credit of wind power: Application of cumulative prospect theory journal, August 2014

Assessment of the capacity credit of wind power in Mexico journal, December 2014

Reliability in Multi-regional Power Systems: Capacity Adequacy and the Role of Interconnectors journal, September 2018

Impacts of large amounts of wind power on design and operation of power systems, results of IEA collaboration journal, March 2011

System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches journal, May 2017

Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model journal, January 2015

Marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission reductions, geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings: an assessment using the POLES model journal, October 1999

High-resolution modeling of the western North American power system demonstrates low-cost and low-carbon futures journal, April 2012

Energy planning and development in Malaysian Borneo: Assessing the benefits of distributed technologies versus large scale energy mega-projects journal, July 2015

Envisioning a renewable electricity future for the United States journal, February 2014

Wind Vision: A New Era for Wind Power in the United States journal, November 2015

SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future report, September 2017

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Z-Method for Power System Resource Adequacy Applications
journal, May 2006

Should we build wind farms close to load or invest in transmission to access better wind resources in remote areas? A case study in the MISO region
journal, September 2016

Endogenous Assessment of the Capacity Value of Solar PV in Generation Investment Planning Studies
journal, October 2015

The Capacity Value of Wind in the United States: Methods and Implementation
journal, March 2006

Effective Load Carrying Capability of Generating Units
journal, August 1966

Capacity Value of Wind Power
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Estimating the Capacity Value of Concentrating Solar Power Plants With Thermal Energy Storage: A Case Study of the Southwestern United States
journal, May 2013

Comparison of Capacity Credit Calculation Methods for Conventional Power Plants and Wind Power
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Capacity value estimation of a load-shifting resource using a coupled building and power system model
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Assessing transfer capability requirement for wind power generation using a combined deterministic and probabilistic approach
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Probing the Intermittent Energy Resource Contributions From Generation Adequacy and Security Perspectives
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Noniterative Method to Approximate the Effective Load Carrying Capability of a Wind Plant
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Modelling utility-scale wind power plants. Part 2: Capacity credit
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Factors influencing calculation of capacity value of wind power: A case study of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM)
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Assessment of the capacity credit of wind power in Mexico
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Impacts of large amounts of wind power on design and operation of power systems, results of IEA collaboration
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