Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization
Abstract
The quantification of sources and sinks of carbon from land use and land cover changes (LULCC) is uncertain. We investigated how the parametrization of LULCC and of organic matter decomposition, as well as initial land cover, affects the historical and future carbon fluxes in an Earth System Model (ESM). Using the land component of the Max Planck Institute ESM, we found that the historical (1750–2010) LULCC flux varied up to 25% depending on the fraction of biomass which enters the atmosphere directly due to burning or is used in short-lived products. The uncertainty in the decadal LULCC fluxes of the recent past due to the parametrization of decomposition and direct emissions was 0.6 Pg C yr$$-$$1, which is 3 times larger than the uncertainty previously attributed to model and method in general. Preindustrial natural land cover had a larger effect on decadal LULCC fluxes than the aforementioned parameter sensitivity (1.0 Pg C yr$$-$$1). Regional differences between reconstructed and dynamically computed land covers, in particular, at low latitudes, led to differences in historical LULCC emissions of 84–114 Pg C, globally. This effect is larger than the effects of forest regrowth, shifting cultivation, or climate feedbacks and comparable to the effect of differences among studies in the terminology of LULCC. Finally, in general, we find that the practice of calibrating the net land carbon balance to provide realistic boundary conditions for the climate component of an ESM hampers the applicability of the land component outside its primary field of application.
- Authors:
-
[5]
- Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); KlimaCampus, Hamburg (Germany); Lab. for Climate and Environmental Sciences (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
- Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
- Finnish Environment Inst. (SYKE), Helsinki (Finland)
- Finnish Meteorologica Inst., Helsinki (Finland)
- Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Dept. Microbiology and Plant Biology; Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Biological Sciences Division
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1347711
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC0576RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 29; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 0886-6236
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; earth system model; land cover change; terrestrial carbon cycle; decomposition; land use
Citation Formats
Goll, Daniel S., Brovkin, Victor, Liski, Jari, Raddatz, Thomas, Thum, Tea, and Todd-Brown, Kathe E. O. Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1002/2014gb004988.
Goll, Daniel S., Brovkin, Victor, Liski, Jari, Raddatz, Thomas, Thum, Tea, & Todd-Brown, Kathe E. O. Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gb004988
Goll, Daniel S., Brovkin, Victor, Liski, Jari, Raddatz, Thomas, Thum, Tea, and Todd-Brown, Kathe E. O. Wed .
"Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gb004988. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1347711.
@article{osti_1347711,
title = {Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization},
author = {Goll, Daniel S. and Brovkin, Victor and Liski, Jari and Raddatz, Thomas and Thum, Tea and Todd-Brown, Kathe E. O.},
abstractNote = {The quantification of sources and sinks of carbon from land use and land cover changes (LULCC) is uncertain. We investigated how the parametrization of LULCC and of organic matter decomposition, as well as initial land cover, affects the historical and future carbon fluxes in an Earth System Model (ESM). Using the land component of the Max Planck Institute ESM, we found that the historical (1750–2010) LULCC flux varied up to 25% depending on the fraction of biomass which enters the atmosphere directly due to burning or is used in short-lived products. The uncertainty in the decadal LULCC fluxes of the recent past due to the parametrization of decomposition and direct emissions was 0.6 Pg C yr$-$1, which is 3 times larger than the uncertainty previously attributed to model and method in general. Preindustrial natural land cover had a larger effect on decadal LULCC fluxes than the aforementioned parameter sensitivity (1.0 Pg C yr$-$1). Regional differences between reconstructed and dynamically computed land covers, in particular, at low latitudes, led to differences in historical LULCC emissions of 84–114 Pg C, globally. This effect is larger than the effects of forest regrowth, shifting cultivation, or climate feedbacks and comparable to the effect of differences among studies in the terminology of LULCC. Finally, in general, we find that the practice of calibrating the net land carbon balance to provide realistic boundary conditions for the climate component of an ESM hampers the applicability of the land component outside its primary field of application.},
doi = {10.1002/2014gb004988},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
number = 9,
volume = 29,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Aug 12 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Wed Aug 12 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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- Harper, Anna B.; Powell, Tom; Cox, Peter M.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Ecosystem Services Related to Carbon Cycling – Modeling Present and Future Impacts in Boreal Forests
journal, March 2019
- Holmberg, Maria; Aalto, Tuula; Akujärvi, Anu
- Frontiers in Plant Science, Vol. 10
Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models
journal, January 2017
- Chadburn, Sarah E.; Krinner, Gerhard; Porada, Philipp
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 22
Long-term deglacial permafrost carbon dynamics in MPI-ESM
journal, January 2018
- Schneider von Deimling, Thomas; Kleinen, Thomas; Hugelius, Gustaf
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 14, Issue 12
Terrestrial methane emissions from the Last Glacial Maximum to the preindustrial period
journal, January 2020
- Kleinen, Thomas; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Brovkin, Victor
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 16, Issue 2
Process-level improvements in CMIP5 models and their impact on tropical variability, the Southern Ocean, and monsoons
journal, January 2018
- Lauer, Axel; Jones, Colin; Eyring, Veronika
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Global Carbon Budget 2015
journal, January 2015
- Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.
- Earth System Science Data, Vol. 7, Issue 2
The Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure Version 1 (FOCI1): Mean State and Variability
journal, January 2020
- Matthes, Katja; Biastoch, Arne; Wahl, Sebastian
- Geoscientific Model Development Discussions
Effects of bryophyte and lichen cover on permafrost soil temperature at large scale
posted_content, February 2016
- Porada, P.; Ekici, A.; Beer, C.
- The Cryosphere Discussions