The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach

Pettett, Abigail; Zarzycki, Colin M.

doi:10.1175/JHM-D-22-0146.1

Title: The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach

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Abstract

Abstract This article explores the application of thermodynamic perturbations to a historical midlatitude, wintertime, rain-on-snow flood event to evaluate how similar events may evolve under different climate forcings. In particular, we generate a hindcast of the 1996 Mid-Atlantic flood using an ensemble of 14-km variable-resolution simulations completed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s global Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We show that the event is skillfully reproduced over the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) by E3SM when benchmarked against in situ observational data and high-resolution reanalyses. In addition, we perform five counterfactual experiments to simulate the flood under preindustrial conditions and four different levels of warming as projected by the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find a nonlinear response in simulated surface runoff and streamflow as a function of atmospheric warming. This is attributed to changing contributions of liquid water input from a shallower initial snowpack (decreased snowmelt), increased surface temperatures and rainfall rates, and increased soil water storage. Flooding associated with this event peaks from around +1 to +2 K of global average surface warming and decreases with additional warming beyond this. There are noticeable timing shifts in peak runoff and streamflow associated with changes in themore »« less

Authors:

Pettett, Abigail ^[1];

^[1]

a Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

Publication Date:: Fri Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2023

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

OSTI Identifier:: 2208877

Resource Type:: Published Article

Journal Name:: Journal of Hydrometeorology

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Journal of Hydrometeorology Journal Volume: 24 Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 1525-755X

Publisher:: American Meteorological Society

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Formats


                    Pettett, Abigail, and Zarzycki, Colin M. The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach.  United States: N. p., 2023. 
Web.  doi:10.1175/JHM-D-22-0146.1.

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                    Pettett, Abigail, & Zarzycki, Colin M. The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0146.1

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                    Pettett, Abigail, and Zarzycki, Colin M. Fri .  
"The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0146.1.

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@article{osti_2208877,

  title        = {The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach},

  author       = {Pettett, Abigail and Zarzycki, Colin M.},

  abstractNote = {Abstract This article explores the application of thermodynamic perturbations to a historical midlatitude, wintertime, rain-on-snow flood event to evaluate how similar events may evolve under different climate forcings. In particular, we generate a hindcast of the 1996 Mid-Atlantic flood using an ensemble of 14-km variable-resolution simulations completed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s global Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We show that the event is skillfully reproduced over the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) by E3SM when benchmarked against in situ observational data and high-resolution reanalyses. In addition, we perform five counterfactual experiments to simulate the flood under preindustrial conditions and four different levels of warming as projected by the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find a nonlinear response in simulated surface runoff and streamflow as a function of atmospheric warming. This is attributed to changing contributions of liquid water input from a shallower initial snowpack (decreased snowmelt), increased surface temperatures and rainfall rates, and increased soil water storage. Flooding associated with this event peaks from around +1 to +2 K of global average surface warming and decreases with additional warming beyond this. There are noticeable timing shifts in peak runoff and streamflow associated with changes in the flashiness of the event. This work highlights the utility of using storyline approaches for communicating climate risk and demonstrates the potential nonlinearities associated with hydrologic extremes in areas that experience ephemeral snowpack, such as the SRB.},

  doi          = {10.1175/JHM-D-22-0146.1},

  journal      = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},

  number       = 12,

  volume       = 24,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Fri Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2023},

  month        = {Fri Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2023}

}

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