A storyline analysis of Hurricane Irma’s precipitation under various levels of climate warming

Journal Article · 28 November 2023 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c89 · OSTI ID:2222958

Huprikar, Annika S. ; Stansfield, Alyssa M. ; Reed, Kevin A.

Abstract Understanding how extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, will change with future climate warming is an interesting computational challenge. Here, the hindcast approach is used to create different storylines of a particular tropical cyclone, Hurricane Irma (2017). Using the community atmosphere model, we explore how Irma’s precipitation would change under various levels of climate warming. Analysis is focused on a 48 h period where the simulated hurricane tracks reasonably represent Irma’s observed track. Under future scenarios of 2 K, 3 K, and 4 K global average surface temperature increase above pre-industrial levels, the mean 3-hourly rainfall rates in the simulated storms increase by 3–7% K ⁻¹ compared to present. This change increases in magnitude for the 95th and 99th percentile 3-hourly rates, which intensify by 10–13% K ⁻¹ and 17–21% K ⁻¹ , respectively. Over Florida, the simulated mean rainfall accumulations increase by 16–26% K ⁻¹ , with local maxima increasing by 18–43% K ⁻¹ . All percent changes increase monotonically with warming level.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: SC0016605
• OSTI ID: 2222958
• Alternate ID(s): OSTI ID: 2205695
• Journal Information: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 19; ISSN 1748-9326
• Publisher: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United Kingdom
• Language: English