Modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Castrucci, Luca; Miller, Ian

doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2019.106552

Title: Modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea

Journal Article · Fri Dec 20 00:00:00 UTC 2019 · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2019.106552 · OSTI ID:1737821

^[1]; Wang, Taiping ^[2]; Castrucci, Luca ^[2]; Miller, Ian ^[3]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

Here we present a modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea—a large and complex estuarine system in the Pacific Northwest that is exposed to extratropical cyclones. A method was developed to systematically identify storm surge events in the Salish Sea based on water level records at four representative tidal gauges in the Salish Sea. The maximum storm surge distribution in the Salish Sea was calculated based on model simulations of 34 major historical storm events from 1980 to 2016. The model simulations were validated by field observations of water level and velocity using a suite of model performance metrics. Model results suggest that the maximum storm surge in the Salish Sea is generally in the range of 0.8 m–1.03 m and is heterogeneous in space. The model results also show a strong north-south gradient with larger surge magnitudes occurring in the north that is primarily caused by the southerly wind in winter months. The sensitivity analysis of wind forcing suggested that storm surge in the Salish Sea is dominated by the remote surge from the Pacific Ocean, and the local wind contributes up to approximately 20% of the surge variability. This paper systematically elucidates storm surge characteristics and potential risk in the Salish Sea.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: NOAA; USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1737821

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--150224

Journal Information:: Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, Journal Name: Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science Vol. 238; ISSN 0272-7714

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (47)

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S. C.; Alizad, K. Earth's Future, Vol. 4, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000347	journal	May 2016
Storm surge along the Pacific coast of North America: STORM SURGE ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST Bromirski, Peter D.; Flick, Reinhard E.; Miller, Arthur J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 122, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012178	journal	January 2017
Sensitivity of U.S. summer precipitation to model resolution and convective parameterizations across gray zone resolutions: Sensitivity Across Gray Zone Resolutions Gao, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Zhao, Chun Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025896	journal	March 2017
Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh: A GLOBAL COUPLED RIVER-COAST FLOOD MODEL Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 9, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS000943	journal	August 2017
Impact of current-wave interaction on storm surge simulation: A case study for Hurricane Bob: A Case Study for Hurricane Bob Sun, Yunfang; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 118, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20207	journal	May 2013
Storm surge simulation along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts using a multi-scale numerical model approach Xu, Hongzhou; Zhang, Keqi; Shen, Jian Ocean Dynamics, Vol. 60, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-010-0321-3	journal	August 2010
Multi-scale modeling of Puget Sound using an unstructured-grid coastal ocean model: from tide flats to estuaries and coastal waters Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang Ocean Dynamics, Vol. 60, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-010-0348-5	journal	November 2010
Tidal residual eddies and their effect on water exchange in Puget Sound Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping Ocean Dynamics, Vol. 63, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0635-z	journal	July 2013
Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding Mousavi, Mir Emad; Irish, Jennifer L.; Frey, Ashley E. Climatic Change, Vol. 104, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9790-0	journal	January 2010
Integrated modeling of flood flows and tidal hydrodynamics over a coastal floodplain Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Khangaonkar, Tarang Environmental Fluid Mechanics, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10652-011-9214-3	journal	July 2011
A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Leung, Ruby Natural Hazards, Vol. 71, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0974-6	journal	December 2013
Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation Yang, Zhaoqing; Taraphdar, Sourav; Wang, Taiping Natural Hazards, Vol. 84, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2482-y	journal	August 2016
M2 tidal dissipation around Vancouver Island: an inverse approach Foreman, M. G. G.; Sutherland, G.; Cummins, P. F. Continental Shelf Research, Vol. 24, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2004.07.008	journal	December 2004
Tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea Zhang, Heng; Cheng, Weicong; Qiu, Xixi Continental Shelf Research, Vol. 142 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2017.05.015	journal	June 2017
How do uncertainties in hurricane model forecasts affect storm surge predictions in a semi-enclosed bay? Zhong, Liejun; Li, Ming; Zhang, Da-Lin Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Vol. 90, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2010.07.001	journal	December 2010
Estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise under future climate change and human development Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Vol. 156 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2014.08.015	journal	April 2015
Numerical study on factors influencing typhoon-induced storm surge distribution in Zhanjiang Harbor Liu, Xing; Jiang, Wensheng; Yang, Bo Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Vol. 215 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2018.09.019	journal	December 2018
Modeling analysis of the swell and wind-sea climate in the Salish Sea Yang, Zhaoqing; García-Medina, Gabriel; Wu, Wei-Cheng Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Vol. 224 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2019.04.043	journal	August 2019
Influence of model domain size, wind directions and Ekman transport on storm surge development inside the Chesapeake Bay: A case study of extratropical cyclone Ernesto, 2006 Shen, Jian; Gong, Wenping Journal of Marine Systems, Vol. 75, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.09.001	journal	January 2009
Modeling of in-stream tidal energy development and its potential effects in Tacoma Narrows, Washington, USA Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Copping, Andrea Ocean & Coastal Management, Vol. 99 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.02.010	journal	October 2014
Assessment of circulation and inter-basin transport in the Salish Sea including Johnstone Strait and Discovery Islands pathways Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Xu, Wenwei Ocean Modelling, Vol. 109 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.11.004	journal	January 2017
Meteorological tsunamis on the coasts of British Columbia and Washington Thomson, R. E.; Rabinovich, A. B.; Fine, I. V. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, Vol. 34, Issue 17-18 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2009.10.003	journal	January 2009
The March 11, 2011 Tōhoku M9.0 earthquake-induced tsunami and coastal inundation along the Japanese coast: A model assessment Chen, Changsheng; Lai, Zhigang; Beardsley, Robert C. Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 123 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.01.002	journal	April 2014
A modeling study of tidal energy extraction and the associated impact on tidal circulation in a multi-inlet bay system of Puget Sound Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing Renewable Energy, Vol. 114 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.03.049	journal	December 2017
Remote forcing contribution to storm-induced sea level rise during Hurricane Dennis Morey, Steven L.; Baig, Stephen; Bourassa, Mark A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027021	journal	January 2006
Nonlinear terms in storm surge predictions: Effect of tide and shelf geometry with case study from Hurricane Rita Rego, João L.; Li, Chunyan Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue C6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005285	journal	January 2010
A model study of density intrusions into and circulation within a deep, silled estuary: Puget Sound Lavelle, J. W.; Cokelet, E. D.; Cannon, G. A. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 96, Issue C9 https://doi.org/10.1029/91JC01450	journal	January 1991
Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems Mellor, George L.; Yamada, Tetsuji Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 20, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/RG020i004p00851	journal	January 1982
Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States Hauer, Mathew E.; Evans, Jason M.; Mishra, Deepak R. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2961	journal	March 2016
Sea-level rise induced amplification of coastal protection design heights Arns, Arne; Dangendorf , Sönke; Jensen, Jürgen Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40171	journal	January 2017
Extreme Sea Surge Responses to Climate Variability in Coastal British Columbia, Canada Abeysirigunawardena, Dilumie S.; Smith, Dan J.; Taylor, Bill Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 101, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2011.585929	journal	September 2011
Storm Surges in the Strait of Georgia Simulated with a Regional Model Soontiens, Nancy; Allen, Susan E.; Latornell, Doug Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 54, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2015.1108899	journal	December 2015
Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Zervas, Chris E. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032	journal	January 2012
An Unstructured Grid, Finite-Volume, Three-Dimensional, Primitive Equations Ocean Model: Application to Coastal Ocean and Estuaries Chen, Changsheng; Liu, Hedong; Beardsley, Robert C. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2003)020<0159:AUGFVT>2.0.CO;2	journal	January 2003
Open Ocean Momentum Flux Measurements in Moderate to Strong Winds Large, W. G.; Pond, S. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1981)011<0324:OOMFMI>2.0.CO;2	journal	March 1981
General Circulation Experiments with the Primitive Equations: i. the Basic Experiment* Smagorinsky, J. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 91, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1963)091<0099:GCEWTP>2.3.CO;2	journal	March 1963
Interaction of an Intense Extratropical Cyclone with Coastal Orography Steenburgh, W. James; Mass, Clifford F. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 124, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<1329:IOAIEC>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 1996
Surface Cyclolysis in the North Pacific Ocean. Part I: A Synoptic Climatology Martin, Jonathan E.; Grauman, Rhett D.; Marsili, Nathan Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 129, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0748:SCITNP>2.0.CO;2	journal	April 2001
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Saha, Suranjana; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Pan, Hua-Lu Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 91, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1	journal	August 2010
A Model Study of the Salish Sea Estuarine Circulation Sutherland, David A.; MacCready, Parker; Banas, Neil S. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 41, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JPO4540.1	journal	June 2011
Climatology and ENSO-Related Variability of North American Extratropical Cyclone Activity Eichler, Timothy; Higgins, Wayne Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3725.1	journal	May 2006
Use of Oceanic Reanalysis to Improve Estimates of Extreme Storm Surge Zhai, Li; Greenan, Blair; Thomson, Richard Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 36, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-19-0015.1	journal	November 2019
The Contributions to Storm Tides in Pacific Northwest Estuaries: Tillamook Bay, Oregon, and the December 2007 Storm Cheng, T. K.; Hill, D. F.; Read, W. Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 313 https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-14-00120.1	journal	May 2015
The Nonlinear Response of Storm Surge to Sea-Level Rise: A Modeling Approach Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 35, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-18-00029.1	journal	March 2019
Extreme wind regime responses to climate variability and change in the inner south coast of British Columbia, Canada Abeysirigunawardena, Dilumie S.; Gilleland, Eric; Bronaugh, David Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 47, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3137/AO1003.2009	journal	March 2009
Seasonal and Interannual Variability in the Circulation of Puget Sound, Washington: A Box Model Study Babson, A. L.; Kawase, M.; MacCready, P. Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 44, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.440103	journal	March 2006
A Sensitivity Analysis of the Wind Forcing Effect on the Accuracy of Large-Wave Hindcasting Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing; Wu, Wei-Cheng Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040139	journal	November 2018

Similar Records

Modeling Analysis of the Swell and Wind-Sea Climate in the Salish Sea

Journal Article · Sat Aug 31 04:00:00 UTC 2019 · Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science · OSTI ID:1567175

Yang, Zhaoqing; Garcia Medina, Gabriel; Wu, Wei-Cheng; +4 more

Storm Surge Modeling in Puget Sound

Technical Report · Wed May 08 04:00:00 UTC 2019 · OSTI ID:1558622

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Castrucci, Luca

Tidal Stream Energy Resource Characterization in the Salish Sea

Journal Article · Thu Jul 01 04:00:00 UTC 2021 · Renewable Energy · OSTI ID:1773366

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Branch, Ruth A.; +2 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Salish sea
assessment
modeling
storm surge
windstorm

Title: Modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea

Citation Formats

References (47)

Similar Records

Related Subjects