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Title: Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems

Abstract

Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. In this work, we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Finally, appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3];  [4];  [5]
  1. École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne (Switzerland); Swiss Federal Lab. for Materials Science and Technology (EMPA), Dubendorf (Switzerland)
  2. Lund Univ. (Sweden); Queensland Univ. of Technology, Brisbane, QLD (Australia); Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Gothenburg (Sweden)
  3. Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden)
  4. École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
  5. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Energy Efficiency Office. Building Technologies Office; Swiss Innovation Agency Innosuisse; Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development; Swedish National Strategic Research Program
OSTI Identifier:
1607408
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 5; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2058-7546
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; power stations; solar energy; wind energy

Citation Formats

Perera, A. T. D., Nik, Vahid M., Chen, Deliang, Scartezzini, Jean-Louis, and Hong, Tianzhen. Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0.
Perera, A. T. D., Nik, Vahid M., Chen, Deliang, Scartezzini, Jean-Louis, & Hong, Tianzhen. Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0
Perera, A. T. D., Nik, Vahid M., Chen, Deliang, Scartezzini, Jean-Louis, and Hong, Tianzhen. Mon . "Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1607408.
@article{osti_1607408,
title = {Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems},
author = {Perera, A. T. D. and Nik, Vahid M. and Chen, Deliang and Scartezzini, Jean-Louis and Hong, Tianzhen},
abstractNote = {Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. In this work, we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Finally, appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.},
doi = {10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0},
journal = {Nature Energy},
number = 2,
volume = 5,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {2}
}

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