Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems

Perera, A. T.  D.; Nik, Vahid M.; Chen, Deliang; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis; Hong, Tianzhen

doi:10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0

Title: Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems

Journal Article · 17 February 2020 · Nature Energy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0 · OSTI ID:1607408

^[1];

^[2];

^[3]; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis ^[4]; Hong, Tianzhen ^[5]

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne (Switzerland); Swiss Federal Lab. for Materials Science and Technology (EMPA), Dubendorf (Switzerland)
Lund Univ. (Sweden); Queensland Univ. of Technology, Brisbane, QLD (Australia); Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Gothenburg (Sweden)
Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden)
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. In this work, we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Finally, appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Energy Efficiency Office. Building Technologies Office; Swiss Innovation Agency Innosuisse; Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development; Swedish National Strategic Research Program

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1607408

Journal Information:: Nature Energy, Vol. 5, Issue 2; ISSN 2058-7546

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 222 works

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