The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections
Abstract
Abstract The current uncertainty surrounding the Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity is an important driver for climate hazard projections. While the implications for projected global temperature changes have been extensively studied, the impacts on sea level projections have been relatively unexplored. Here we analyze the relationship between the climate sensitivity and sea level projections, with a particular focus on the high‐impact upper tail. We utilize a Bayesian calibration of key climate and sea level parameters using historical observations and the reduced‐complexity Earth system model, Hector‐BRICK. This methodology allows us to focus on plausible realizations of the climate system in a probabilistic framework. We analyze the effects of high‐end climate sensitivity (above 5 K) on projections and spatial patterns of sea level change. The sea level projections hinge critically on the upper tail of the climate sensitivity, especially for the highly decision‐relevant upper tail. Results have important implications for timing of threshold exceedances and regional variability.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
[2];
[3];
[4]
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign Urbana IL USA
- Joint Global Change Research Institute College Park MD USA
- School of Mathematical Sciences Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester NY USA
- Department of Geosciences Pennsylvania State University University Park PA USA, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute Pennsylvania State University University Park PA USA
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1604841
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐AC05‐76RL01830; DE‐SC0016162
- Resource Type:
- Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 47 Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Vega‐Westhoff, B., Sriver, R. L., Hartin, C., Wong, T. E., and Keller, K. The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1029/2019GL085792.
Vega‐Westhoff, B., Sriver, R. L., Hartin, C., Wong, T. E., & Keller, K. The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085792
Vega‐Westhoff, B., Sriver, R. L., Hartin, C., Wong, T. E., and Keller, K. Fri .
"The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085792.
@article{osti_1604841,
title = {The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections},
author = {Vega‐Westhoff, B. and Sriver, R. L. and Hartin, C. and Wong, T. E. and Keller, K.},
abstractNote = {Abstract The current uncertainty surrounding the Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity is an important driver for climate hazard projections. While the implications for projected global temperature changes have been extensively studied, the impacts on sea level projections have been relatively unexplored. Here we analyze the relationship between the climate sensitivity and sea level projections, with a particular focus on the high‐impact upper tail. We utilize a Bayesian calibration of key climate and sea level parameters using historical observations and the reduced‐complexity Earth system model, Hector‐BRICK. This methodology allows us to focus on plausible realizations of the climate system in a probabilistic framework. We analyze the effects of high‐end climate sensitivity (above 5 K) on projections and spatial patterns of sea level change. The sea level projections hinge critically on the upper tail of the climate sensitivity, especially for the highly decision‐relevant upper tail. Results have important implications for timing of threshold exceedances and regional variability.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL085792},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 6,
volume = 47,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Mar 13 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Fri Mar 13 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085792
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